My bet is we’ll see the same thing in Korea. In both Japan and Korea the incumbents mounted campaigns against the iPhone and mustered means at their disposal (including major newspapers, TV and government agencies) to hinder Apple’s entry.
The reality however is that captive customers in those economies have always yearned for better products. There will always be a segment of the population that is informed about alternatives and will buy what works, at the expense of purchase decisions based on nationalism. It’s that group which will influence behavior over time.
This is how Toyota won against GM in the US.
This is active users in the US only.
iPhone now tops WinMo and is second only to RIM. The only line that is going down is the dumbphone category which lost 10 million users.
Those users were mostly switched to RIM and Apple. RIM gained about 4.3 million users and Apple gained about 3.5 million.
Android user base still lowest of all platforms and increased by about 0.6 million. They are likely to beat Palm however next few quarters. At this rate however it’s very hard to see an installed base that is going to challenge Apple for a long time.
Palm gained 0.44 million. Symbian gained 0.41 million. WinMo gained 0.3 million.
With a 1.4 multiplier for iPod Touch, the platform would have 12.5 million users, pretty near RIM’s base. We might see that tipping over next quarter.
In other news:
- Nokia shutters flagship Regent Street store in face of Apple retail’s domination – December 08, 2009
- Nokia sees flat market share as Apple gains – December 02, 2009
- Nokia Chief Strategist: Apple will remain a niche player in smartphones, just like in computers – November 30, 2009
- Nokia to cut another 330 R&D jobs – November 20, 2009
- To understand market share vs. profits, look no further than Nokia vs. Apple – November 11, 2009
- How Apple passed Nokia to become the world’s most profitable handset vendor – November 11, 2009
- Strategy Analytics: Apple passes Nokia to become world’s most profitable handset vendor – November 10, 2009
- Nokia sues Apple claiming iPhone infringement of Nokia GSM, UMTS and WLAN patents – October 22, 2009
- Nokia posts loss of 559 million euros on weaker smartphone sales – October 15, 2009
- Nokia’s earnings plummet 66 percent – July 17, 2009
- Jim Cramer: The problem with Dell and Nokia is that no one wants their products; Buy Apple – July 17, 2009
- Nokia’s failures vs. Apple’s vibrant iPhone platform puts market share at risk – June 24, 2009
- Nokia Ovi Store launch a complete disaster – May 26, 2009
- Nokia ships 19% fewer phones in Q1, bleeds more share – April 16, 2009
- Nokia axes 1700 jobs worldwide – March 17, 2009
- Nokia halts sale of iPhone killer; 5800 handset plagued with major problems – March 02, 2009
- Nokia hops on bandwagon, unveils knockoffs of Apple’s iTunes Store, App Store – February 16, 2009
- Nokia profit collapses 69% in fourth quarter 2008 – January 22, 2009
- Nokia’s profits plummet 30 percent – October 16, 2008
- Nokia’s fatally flawed ‘Comes With Music’ service no Apple ‘iTunes Store killer’ – October 03, 2008
- Nokia fumbles iPhone lookalike-not-workalike launch in U.S. and Europe – October 02, 2008
- Nokia sputters that iPhone ‘not worthy of discussion’ – August 13, 2008
- Apple takes top spot from Nokia on AMR Research’s 2008 Supply Chain Top 25 list – May 30, 2008
- Nokia shares slammed in wake of miss; Nokia CEO calls Apple iPhone ‘niche product’ – April 17, 2008
- The knockoff parade continues: Nokia exec shows Apple iPhone lookalike ‘Tube’; dismisses Apple – April 08, 2008
- Nokia previews blatant Apple iPhone knock-off (with video) – August 29, 2007
- Nokia CEO challenges Apple over iPhone – February 13, 2007
As I mentioned, I expect the green line to extend above 100 million in 3 to 4 quarters from where it currently ends.