We previously estimated that Google might sell 3.5 mn Nexus One units in 2010. Initial data-points were disappointing, possibly due to limited marketing and customer service challenges. Flurry estimated (based on mobile traffic) that Google sold 20,000 in the first week, and 80,000 in the first month, both annualizing to 1.0 mn. We forecast that Google sells 1.0 mn Nexus One units in FY2010, benefiting from US carriers other than T-Mobile, and non-US carriers such as Vodafone, promoting the device too, but suffering from limited marketing activity. We assume that Google rolls out a second Nexus handset, markets it more aggressively, and makes it available offline, and therefore forecast that Google sells 2 mn handsets per year in 2011 and future years.
link: Goldman: We Were Too Rosy on Google Smartphone Unit Sales – MarketBeat – WSJ
First they get excited over Palm then fawn over Nexus One. Then they take it all back. Give us a break.
Read my takes here:
Google the Shopkeeper
Nexus One: 80k units in first month -Flurry
Android vs. Google
Cusick says his checks find Palm is getting only about 1% share of handset sales at Verizon Wireless, or about 10,000 units a week, versus 400,000 units that were sold in to the company. At this rate, he says, there is “no prospect of Verizon follow-through” in the May quarter – and he sees weak sell-in at AT&T in the quarter as well. (AT&T has said plans to launch a Palm phone, but no timetable has been announced, I would add.) He sees Sprint launching other new smart phones soon, “which would reduce Palm’s share even further.”
link: Palm: Macquarie Downgrades; Cuts Target To $4, From $10 – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com
Stepping back into the wayback machine to read analyst commentary from 6 months prior to the launch of WebOS (June 27th, 2008):
In a report form Deutsche Bank’s (Sell rating). They noted that 38% of the shares were sold short, while 10 holders account for almost 70% of the shares outstanding.
In Deutsche Bank’s view, Palm’s future would be “entirely dependent on their new products, services and operating system,” all due next year. “If these turn out to be good, then the stock could do well,” he says. “If the new entries are not attractive, then Palm risks bankruptcy.”
Now, unlike the Apple iPhone, the Droid can run more than one app at a time. This sounds like a fantastic feature, and a major selling point. Unfortunately, it is very hard to turn an app off, so it doesn’t take long for the phone to become overwhelmed. How big of a problem is this? The number one downloaded app in the Droid app store is “Advanced Task Killer” an app you must use dozens of times a day to kill apps that are slowing down your phone.
Much more here: Thoughts on the Downside of the Droid — Seeking Alpha