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iPad Death Watch : AAPLinvestors

You can’t go wrong betting against this bunch.

(link above reproduced below due to bandwidth issues with their servers.)

“Any tablet computer, including Apple’s eagerly anticipated iPad, will face serious problems in generating big sales. Tablets look cool, but the reality is they don’t do anything new.” Michael Comeau, Minyanville, 5 March 2010

Dvorak:”I’m telling you, look at this product coming out of India called the Adam.”
Curry: “A-D-A-M?”
Dvorak: “Yeah.”
Curry: “And it’s a what it’s a pad?”
Dvorak: “It’s an iPad Killer. And I hate to use that term since the iPad is probably dead anyway.”
No Agenda Podcast, Adam Curry & John C. Dvorak, 25 February 2010

“Fewer capabilities (than a netbook) but a similar size? Not a good start.”Lee Gomes, Forbes Asia Magazine, 5 March 2010

“We of course build plastic mock-ups that we show (to customers)…we had a slate form factor. The feedback was that for (our) customers it will not work because of the need to have (a physical) keyboard. These were 14-year-old kids, who, I thought, would be most willing to try a virtual keyboard but they said no, we want the physical keyboard.” Mika Majapuro, Worldwide Sr. Product Marketing Manager, Lenovo, 22 February 2010

“The Apple iPad is not going to be the company’s next runaway best seller.” John Dvorak, MarketWatch, 12 February 2010

“It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.’” Bill Gates, Microsoft, 10 February 2010

“The rally has been especially kind to seemingly racy stocks such as Apple and Google. Both have pole-vaulted to market-surpassing gains over the past 12 months, despite the fact that the former’s hamster-wheel of innovation (to borrow an apt phrase from my Fool colleague Joe Magyer) may have hit a snag with the iPad. ” Shannon Zimmerman, The Motley Fool, 10 February 2010

“It’s not a tablet, it’s an extension of the iPod Touch. It has some new kinks, but generally speaking it’s using the iPhone OS. It’s more like a smart phone than a personal computer. It’s the Newton reborn. What’s missing most is the communications aspect.” Andreas Haas (former Apple executive), CEO, Axiotron (Modbook), 7 February 2010

Before Jan 20th, 49 percent of people said they didn’t think they needed an Apple Tablet. That number jumped to 61 percent after the announcement. Fifty-nine percent of buyers wouldn’t pay extra for 3G coverage. Whether this device becomes a big hit is anyone’s guess but based on this study it sure looks doubtful.” Retrevo, 5 February 2010

“Yet it’s hard to see how the iPad, in the form unveiled last month, will come close to transforming daily life as much as the iPod or iPhone. The challenge with the iPad will be less about improving an established market than building a new one.” Arik Hesseldahl, BusinessWeek, 5 February 2010

“I added it up and … like 800 people are going to buy the iPad. . . . It’s not that the iPad is a failure. It’s just a product ahead of its time. No one should actually buy this iPad — between its inevitable first-generation bugs, fulfillment problems, and buyer’s remorse over added features and price drops, it’s heartbreak waiting to happen.” Molly Wood, CNet, 31 January 2010

“It was a bigger iPod Touch. I question whether those features would be enough to get people to buy new machines.” Satoru Iwata, President, Nintendo, 29 January 2010

“The company once notorious for its ability to upend convention and revolutionize markets may no longer have what it takes, worry some technology journalists. Call it the iPad or the iPlod, but the message seems clear: Apple may have lost its mojo.” Jeremy A. Kaplan, FOXNews.com, 28 January 2010

“What’s the single most worrisome thing about the iPad? It’s Apple’s monopoly on distribution of applications. ” Harry McCracken, Tecnologizer.com, 29 January 2010

“The tablet market has only succeeded as a niche market over the years and it was hoped Apple would dream up some new paradigm to change all that. From what I’ve seen and heard, this won’t be it.” John Dvorak, MarketWatch, 29 January 2010

“It is a humorous world in how Microsoft is much more open than Apple,” Frank Shaw, Microsoft, Corporate VP, Corporate Communications, 29 January 2010

“When Steve Jobs first demonstrated the Apple Mac, he used the words “insanely great” to demonstrate the full graphical display of the computer. It’s a tag that has stuck around to this day among Apple fans. But, today’s comments from Jobs that the iPad is a “magical, revolutionary” device ring hollow.”Dan Wayne, apc mag, 28 January 2010

“All the people (including me) who felt underwhelmed by the iPad initially might have missed its true potential. Put another way: the iPad is all about software. Forget the sleek form factor – that’s just a prerequisite. Ironically, it’s the software and services that Microsoft never ‘got’, that Apple totally does get.” Dan Wayne, apc mag, 12 February 2010

“Nothing from the iPad specs that I’ve seen really shows any great cause for celebration. Unless Apple has also developed some new type of power source, such as nuclear cells or magical hamsters on tiny spinning wheels for the iPad, don’t expect the claims about battery life to hold true. ” John Breeden II, Government Computer News, 28 January 2010

“Ultimately, the iPad is a large iPod touch: a great device to draw your inspiration from, but perhaps not the seismic shift in technology that we were expecting.” Claudine Beaumont, The Telegraph, 28 January 2010

“Behold: The Apple iFlop Neither “truly magical” nor “revolutionary,” the cluelessly named Apple iPad tablet device has dropped like a shiny wedge into the gadget game, dividing tech watchers in to opposing views — the critical and the adoring.” Scott Moritz, TheStreet.com, 28 January 2010

“9 Worst Things About The Apple Tablet:
1. No Flash
2. Its screen
3. Its price
4. Closed App Store
5. Its name
6. No multitasking
7. No camera
8. No USB
9. AT&T deal
Bianca Bosker, Huffington Post, 29 January 2010

“What do the new Apple iPad and Google’s Nexus One have in common? Both were DOA: Disappointing On Arrival. Why is the iPad a disappointment? Because it doesn’t allow us to do anything we couldn’t do before. Sure, it is a
neat form factor, but it comes with significant trade-offs, too. No 16:9 widescreen, for example.” David Coursey, PC World, 28 January 2010

“E-readers will outsell iPads because of the simple economics of the consumer device market. It’s triple the weight and 30% thicker than an e-reader. You need two hands to hold it. It’s got a backlit screen, and it’s too expensive to give one to everyone in your house.” Russ Wilcox, CEO E-Ink (makers of Amazon’s Kindle), 28 January 2010

“It seems like a high priced, unnecessary trinket to me.” Paul Thurrott, SuperSite for Windows, 27 January 2010

“Apple iPad – failure, joke or fiasco? Pick one” Linen DeFiller, MillionFace.com, 27 January 2010

“The press weren’t cheering and whooping. I didn’t see anybody pee their pants … Not one! The only people I saw cheering were the people who work at Apple down in the front two rows … Al Gore was going crazy. I wanted to see more. It’s a big iPod. What is there to do there? Play a video game on a bigger screen? I thought it [iPad] was ‘paving the cow path’ (enshrining a makeshift solution).” Dan Lyons aka Fake Steve Jobs, 27 January 2010

“Let’s face it, the Internet was designed for the PC. The Internet is not designed for the iPhone. That’s why they’ve got 75,000 applications — they’re all trying to make the Internet look decent on the iPhone.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft, 21 October 2009


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  • Adam

    Some people are all too eager to make fools of themselves when Apple launches a new device, it happens time and time again. And if you dare disagree with the pundit's pronouncement, the crowd will dismiss your take as an irrelevant fanboy rant. When the market proves them wrong, they won't admit it. Obviously it just proves there is something wrong will people: "I called that one right, it's just that people are easily swayed by Apple's deceitful marketing." They just don't get it, imagine a group of pundits, etc, brainstorming a new product idea. Even with an unlimited R&D budget they would produce a bunch of crap like the OpenOffice mouse. "It has some impressive specs, an 18-button mouse is a great cause for celebration!" :-)

    • http://www.asymco.com asymco

      The transition to the post-PC world will be uncomfortable indeed. It's Future Shock.

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  • Scotian

    The thing is I agree with everything quoted above. I might be be out of Apple's target group.

    • http://www.asymco.com asymco

      I would guess that many of those quoted above already bought their iPads. I did not bother listing all the mea culpas.

      Everybody's in the target group.

    • vinculus

      The thing is no-one cares what you think or do. By saying are out of Apple's target group you just volunteered out of the human race. Look at the numbers. Learn to think.

    • randomness9090

      So, Scotian. You come around yet?

    • Didrikanna

      Everything?

      “Dvorak:”I’m telling you, look at this product coming out of India called the Adam.”Curry: “A-D-A-M?”
      Dvorak: “Yeah.”
      Curry: “And it’s a what it’s a pad?”
      Dvorak: “It’s an iPad Killer. And I hate to use that term since the iPad is probably dead anyway.”

    • http://twitter.com/Yogi Jonas

      You agree with all the quotes that claim that the iPad won’t sell?

      That’s a bold statement, especially when the predictions have been factually proven wrong.

      • ThKal

        If you keep your eyes and ears closed for the last three years, you can pretend all those sales never happened…

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  • http://twitter.com/Chrisedmo Chris Mousdale

    I’ll never forgot when I got the original iPad the day it came out. And i vividly remember the remarks I received from people when using it. Those same people went on to buy one that Christmas, then the 2, then the 3 etc.

  • Joseph Scharfenberg

    I bought an iPad on the first day the 3G was available (waited in line even), and I loved it. It now serves as my mother’s iPad as I got my iPad (third generation) 4G again on the first day.

    To all of them saying it’s a giant iPod Touch, I say “So?”. I read Anathem on my iPod Touch, so that’s exactly what I was looking for, a bigger version. But I’m not the typical use case.

  • ianlogsdon

    A lot of my friends were in this boat when the iPad was revealed. I told them to relax and think about the music software that would come out for it. They ignored me and raged. They all own iPads now.

    • jonathanjk

      The important thing is that they changed their minds and didn’t stick their head in the sand.

    • http://twitter.com/asymco Horace Dediu

      Have they shared with you the learning that they obtained while changing their minds?

  • ChKen

    Some people are just tone deaf when it comes to new music. They can’t tell what’s good music from what’s bad music, and yet, they’re in a position to pass judgement and can influence a large audience.

    Some of these people need to turn in their tech insider badges because all of their experience has not given them any valuable insight into what makes a new product successful. At least, they need to put their silliest prognostications into a sig file appended to their writing, so that one can put their comments into the proper context.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jim.hassinger Jim Hassinger

    The best comment I remember from those days had to do with “Pad” in the name. Like a sanitary pad for ladies, snicker***!!! It amazes me how stupid the commentators are. And Dvorak? Well, if you check up, he edits himself. You can find reactions all over the place.

    • http://www.tumblr.com/blog/his-divine-shadow His Shadow

      The “pad” comments were sad and pathetic. These people had never heard of keypad, mouse pad, helipad or launch pad before?

  • MrPhotoEd

    It looks like a lot of the comments above came from the Ready, Fire, Aim camp.

    Just a thought

  • Aru

    I’ve been a Mac user for over a decade now, I was underwhelmed by the presentation of the iPad, but it’s still the most overwhelming electronic device I’ve ever used. Even more than my phone. Sounds silly, but it is the only product I can remember getting, opening and starting it for the first time. And thats part of the magic about that presentation by Apple. Just calm, strait forward simple presentation of the simplest computer ever made. Brilliant.

  • don108

    These analysts and prognosticators—at least those who are not simply denouncing a competitor’s product—are nothing more than carnival fortune tellers…they’re just not as accurate.

  • http://twitter.com/nmphotog Adron Gardner

    Ballmer, Iwata and Dvorak? Just a reliable group of people you can trust to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Koen-van-Hees/1301049198 Koen van Hees

    read on my iPad ;-)

  • http://twitter.com/josephholmes Joe Holmes

    Some truth buried in all that:

    9 Worst Things About The Apple Tablet:

    9. AT&T deal
    Bianca Bosker, Huffington Post, 29 January 2010

  • http://twitter.com/rigaritax rigaritax

    all these “experts” resigned, right? right??

  • Andre Richards

    I admit to being indifferent to the iPad when it came out. I thought it was interesting but never thought I’d want one. I didn’t understand where Apple was going with it. Still, I thought it best to stay open-minded to whatever the future held for this new device and thought it was an interesting risk for Apple to take. I don’t understand how so many self-proclaimed tech experts were so quick to crap on it.

    • Player_16

      Yeah; and after they crapped on it, they stuck their face in it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jason.fuerstenberg.1 Jason Fuerstenberg

    Dvorak should get his head checked.

  • Alfiejr

    of all the quotes, it’s Ballmer’s final hit – never saw it before – that was the most prescient. so clearly predicting, that is, how MS would so totally fail to grasp the future.

    and it still hasn’t. MS is still trying to jam its desktop OS onto tablets – W8 – and totally messed its desktop up too in the process. Ballmer – what a piece of work.

  • ExtraE

    I bought one the day it came out. I brought it home, opened it up, and it instantly made sense why this would change everything. I went on to show neighbors, my parents, my friends, my coworkers, and of course countless curious strangers who would walk up and ask about it when I was using it while out and about. Nearly all of my neighbors went on to buy iPads within six months, my parents bought iPads sooner, many of my friends bought them as soon as they could find them in stock, my coworkers bought them (even my boss uses one almost exclusively now, hasn’t taken a laptop home in over two years) and while I can’t speak for the specific strangers I ran into, I think I can say that plenty more strangers bought iPads as well. Once you get one in your hands, you start to understand what the iPad is all about, and that’s still just scratching the surface. Even three years in, we’re scratching the surface. I’ve had every iPad that’s been released at this point, the day it’s been released, and while I still love my iMac and will likely be purchasing a MacBook Pro with Retina Display soon as a mobile “pickup truck” computer, I will likely continue to do 75% or more of my computing and communicating on the iPad. Now, it’s hard to imagine what life was like before the iPad. It’s such an obvious solution to me that it feels like I’ve had one forever at this point, yet it’s only been three years. Steve Jobs is no stranger to superlative statements, so you can’t be surprised that he’d call it “magical,” whether you believe it to be a bit over the top or not. But you’ve got to be a blind fool to not recognize that he was spot on when he called it “revolutionary.”

    And for the record, I tried hard to not like Apple for a long time. I was still a BlackBerry and Windows desktop user (though previous Apple MacBook user) when I first bought the iPad (which I wanted primarily for use with PDF files). The only Apple product I unabashedly loved at that point was the iPod. The iPad was my tipping point, and I’ve been much, much happier, not to mention far more productive and creative since moving over to the Apple ecosystem. I don’t relish the “fanboy” label that I easily pick up now, but I’ll take it over the hours and hours of troubleshooting and frustration I used to go through trying to make high-end Windows machines and BlackBerrys do what Apple products do easily with next to no hassle. Apple is far from perfect, but I appreciate that they are trying to be great, even if at times they overreach. The bottom line for me is that all of my Apple hassles combined over the last 2-3 years of Apple-centric tech usage doesn’t come even remotely close to approaching the amount of frustration I dealt with in any given month working in the Windows/BlackBerry world.

    So ultimately, the iPad was revolutionary in far more ways than one for me.

    • http://search.websonar.com:8080/ Duane Bemister

      The iPad is like the iMac, It surprised even Apple. It really is the ultimate disrupter, enabling apps that will soon truly seem magical.

  • Les_S

    I have to admit it that when I first saw Jobs introduce the iPad my first thought was, ok it’s a big iPod touch. And? The nerd in me was looking for a hybrid between the desktop UI and the touch UI. But I thought, heck my wife hates computers lets see if she likes it. When it was finally released we went over to a local Best Buy just to see how she would react. What I was really surprised by wasn’t her absolutely wanting to walk out with one but by my own reaction to it. It’s still somewhat difficult to articulate, to quantify, but my reaction was visceral. I couldn’t get enough of the real estate I now had at my finger tips compared to the iPhone in my pocket. The iPhone was a great portable device but the iPad was going to immediately replace my laptop. Why? Because when I’m not nerding out (I do plenty of that at work) I don’t need all of the horsepower that a laptop or desktop offers. And this single realization led to my shifting my computing behavior to the iPad at home or on my commute. And it was Apple’s genius in this regard that made the iPad the success it is. For a vast array of people in this world the overpowered devices we’ve been using have been overkill for what we’ve actually been doing with them. Visiting websites, checking email or consuming video or music content does not need a top of the line machine. Apple took the time to understand what most people use computers for and offered a device that was perfect for that job. They certainly could have produced an overpowered energy draining device that would have appealed to the nerd lust in some of us but Microsoft had already championed that cause and it got them nowhere.

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  • http://www.pocketinfo.net/ Robert Latchford

    Go for a Yuma 2 – sunlight readable , water , shock and vibration proof , has the best contrast ratio – you can even drive over it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WlNGb2SZwE

  • http://twitter.com/tobycoulstock Toby Coulstock

    The iPad IS a big iPod Touch. The problem is when you say that dismissively. Not only does a change in screen size change the experience (eg. TV vs cinema) but the specific change from 3.5″ to 9.7″ is disproportionately significant for a user interface. It’s a important step up from being compromised and cramped to being practical and useful (if not spacious) for most tasks.

    I mean, I realise Apple did, indeed, bring out Pages for the iPhone and iPod Touch but it is in no way useful for most jobs required of a word processor.

  • Jay Parlar

    When I was in school, I had a job representing Apple at my university’s book/computer store. I’d often hear “but it’s just a big iPod Touch!” My response, every time, was “Yes, and a swimming pool is just a big bathtub.” That usually seemed to clue the person in to how the size of something can totally change the context in which it can be used.

  • http://twitter.com/kevinliuzzo Kevin Liuzzo

    Even as an avid Apple user, I was skeptical about the iPad. On launch day I went down to the store just to check it out. I played with it for about 10 minutes. An employee came over to me and asked, “Anything I can help you with?” “Hrmm,” I replied, “got any of these left?”

    Now my iPad Mini is my go-to device for most everything I do, and I own and have access to a lot of desktops, notebooks, and servers.

  • LTMP

    Back in January 2010 I posted a comment on ARS with my predictions for the iPad. This is probably the only time I was even close to being correct.

    As you can imagine, I was not disappointed :)

    “Here’s my two cents worth.

    I see the market for a tablet being divided into three key segments based on use.

    1) consumer: Video, web surfing, gaming, books and magazines. basically a bigger iPhone/iPod Touch.

    2) professional: Medical professionals, mechanics, journalists. Basically, any profession that could benefit from a simple and effective interface on a tablet. This means it will need much more computing power than a netbook.

    3) Students: Interactive textbooks on a convenient platform. Easy ways to add notes and even interact with calendar and to do lists could make this a big hit.

    As an added bonus, I think this device will replace Apple TV. it will have a TV app that will have the same function as ATV, and will connect to your TV wirelessly through a small box (basically an Airport Express) connected to the TV. It will deliver 1080p. Another option here is to connect with HDMI or component, but I’m betting they will have come up with a way to stream 1080p just fine.

    The first iteration might be a regular LCD screen, 2nd gen might be Pixel Qi ‘two mode LCD’.

    So… I see this being a drastically souped up iPhone with some amazing apps built in and leveraging the existing developer base to add more.”

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