After 12 million units sold in 28 60 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:
First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)
- Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
- David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
- Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
- Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
- Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
- Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
- Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
- Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
- Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
- Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
- Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
- Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
- Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
- Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1
Looks like at least half two thirds of these guys have already blown it.
For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year). It looks like I’ll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.
See: Analysts predict iPad sales
A few eyebrows were raised when Microsoft presented a slide at a French event where they made the claim that 30 Million Windows Phone devices would be sold by the end of 2011. Given that the first Windows Phone won’t ship until October 2010 at the earliest, or, according to Mr. Ballmer, “by Christmas,” count me among the skeptics.
However, the claim was later retracted by Microsoft stating that they mis-quoted IDC, the original source for the forecast. The correction was perhaps meant to put an end to the credibility crisis.
However, the actual forecast from IDC was even more preposterous.
Asymco is now in its third home and fourth design. After starting in February 2010 with iWeb hosted at me.com, moving a month later to WordPress.com, I’ve finally moved the blog to a proper hosting site (dreamhost) and merged the blog with asymco.com.
One reason I had to leave WordPress.com was that they required payment for the removal of ads from my pages. Although I understand their business model, I felt that it’s more important that what users see is my content and only my content.
At the time of moving, the blog had 306 posts, 272 comments, 64 tags, 9 categories and nearly 40k hits.
Hopefully the transition will be painless to those who came to the old site.
The number of Android devices is rising steadily; it’s already up to 135. Android devotees should rightly rejoice. However, Android is not the first mobile platform with an open licensing strategy. A quick visit to pdadb.net lets us count the number of devices that shipped for every mobile platform in history. We can also see the current market shares as listed by Gartner for these platforms.
The numbers of SKUs (stock keeping units) that have shipped historically vs. the market shares of the mobile phones running those platforms are (see Footnote below for some caveats):
The same data in a scatter plot:
Four out of 10 sales of the iPhone are made to enterprise users. When the iPhone came out, what most people heard in the first year from ‘07 to ‘08 was oh my God, it’s not BlackBerry secure. This is not going to work on the enterprise space.
At the end of the day, it’s just software. That’s all it is. And by the time the 3G came out in ‘08 they had solved about 80% of the security issues.
So enterprises today view the iPhone as a mobile computer. It happens to have a voice application on it.
via AT&T exec: 4 out of 10 of our iPhone sales to enterprises | ZDNet.
Compare Apple’s approach to that of Nokia: