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Day May 3, 2010

Analysts predict iPad sales

After 1 million units sold in 28 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech   7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs           6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley     6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros.              5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets   5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray           3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital           2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital         2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna           2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank       2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch               1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams       1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel             1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer             1.1

Looks like at least half of these guys have already blown it.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).

Thanks to MfH for the tip.

iPad outsells iPhone

Apple today announced that it sold its one millionth iPad on Friday, just 28 days after its introduction on April 3. iPad users have already downloaded over 12 million apps from the App Store and over 1.5 million ebooks from the new iBookstore.

via Apple Sells One Million iPads.

On March 14 I wrote:

I will be surprised if the number of units sold in Apple’s CQ2 doesn’t exceed 1 million. This will probably mean better performance with a new platform than Nokia, Google, Sony Ericsson or HTC and perhaps better than the iPhone.

On March 9 I wrote:
In either case, iPad will sell better than the iPhone out of the gate.
The iPhone sold 1 million within 74 days.  The iPad sold 1 million units in less than half the time the iPhone did.