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Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)

After 12 million units sold in 28 60 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1

Looks like at least half two thirds of these guys have already blown it.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).  It looks like I’ll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.

See: Analysts predict iPad sales

  • M

    At 1 mil per month, that would mean 12 mil first year. And this is in just some countries. All analysts were wrong. Once all countries open up, it could be 3-4 mil/month.

  • Tom Ross

    Is this about calendar 2010 or the first 12 months of iPad?

    A few weeks ago, Gene Munster already revised his forecast to 5 million something for 2009 and 1.7 million for this quarter. In March, right before the launch and after the rumors about productions snags, I predicted over 2 million for Q2, about 3 million for Q3 and close to 5 million for Q4, or 10 million for calendar 2010.

    Both seem too low now, although there is probably nobody outside of Apple who knows for sure if we are looking at an enormously motivated and enormously grown core Apple audience, or if 1 million per month are indeed sustainable sales to the general public. August / September will be the first time when the launch hype is finally over.

    Hype or not, the iPad as a product proposition is still not even fully realized right now. It will take another 6 months before apps start maturing, supply and demand are in balance and Apple knows what customers like most about it ie how to sell it to Christmas shoppers.

    If they're really good, they'll already be able to get a grip on back-to-school shoppers, but text books are still sorely missing.

    • http://www.asymco.com asymco

      The forecasts were for calendar year 2010. A more accurate comparison based on units/month is here:

      http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/05/31/ipad-sales

    • http://www.asymco.com asymco

      "Both seem too low now, although there is probably nobody outside of Apple who knows for sure if we are looking at an enormously motivated and enormously grown core Apple audience, or if 1 million per month are indeed sustainable sales to the general public. August / September will be the first time when the launch hype is finally over."

      For what it's worth, multiple versions of the iPhone, the iPod and the touch product all had patterns of growth where early purchasing was followed by sustained growth. Apple keeps the growth going with product updates. I expect the same pattern to emerge with the iPad. 2 to 3 quarters of growth with a burst during Holidays and then a product refresh starting the cycle again.

  • M

    I think first year meant first 12 mos after release. I don't think even Apple knows how big the demand is. If they did they would have built more. I think 1 mil/month is sustainable, easily. All US stores are empty, and now all international stores. I think 1 mil/month is just the production capacity, not the real demand.

  • M

    My shipment ordered 2 weeks ago is shipping directly from SHENZHEN CN. That means it is made to order. First come, first served? That means they are on a 2 week back-order schedule.

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