Android is a BlackBerry killer

Much has been made of the potential for Android to reduce the growth of iPhone. The iPhone seems to be doing very well and continuing to be supply rather than demand constrained.

RIM however seems to be under significant pressure.  A Goldman Sachs analyst first pointed this out in her last report and placed a “Sell” on RIMM.  The fact is that most of RIM’s sales are in the US on the carriers other than AT&T.  In those very same carriers, Android is being pushed hard as a customer retention strategy, so iPhone is pressuring RIM only indirectly through Android.

The evidence is also in survey data.  In the graph below, we see how iPhone buyers are considering Android as the most credible alternative to the iPhone whereas they considered BlackBerry the best alternative a year ago.  In terms of vendors, what RIM lost HTC gained.

One can only wonder what will happen when the iPhone enters unrestricted distribution in the US.  The results in other markets speak for themselves.

AppleInsider | Apple’s recurring revenue stream: 77% of iPhone 4 sales were upgrades.

  • Blackberry's main base is enterprise. I don't see how any enterprise is going to go for Android with the lack of a "walled garden, and the attendant spyware and virus risk.

    • RIM's 'base' may be the enterprise but their growth has all been consumer. Management started targeting consumers with the Pearl in 2006. Since then they've been touting that 50% of their net adds are consumers. RIM's enterprise customers will take a long time to switch but the company's share erosion will be primarily affected by Android short term.