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Month June 2010

Entries 5 Total

Microsoft’s 7 Mobile Operating Systems

Jun 24, ’10 11:21 PM

Adding this all up, Microsoft has several mobile OS products in various stages of production, including

  1. Windows Mobile 6.5
  2. Windows Phone 7
  3. KIN
  4. Windows Embedded Handheld
  5. Windows Embedded Handheld 7
  6. Windows Embedded Standard 7
  7. Windows Embedded Compact 7.

As ZD blogger Mary Jo Foley noted recently, this fact is somewhat amusing in the wake of Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s criticism of Google for having two different mobile OSes (Chrome OS and Android.)

via Microsoft’s Mobile Strategy Isn’t A Strategy. It’s A Mess.

That’s not version 7 of an OS, that’s 7 different OS’s in the market at the same time.

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RIMM near 52 week low

Jun 24, ’10 10:22 PM

RIMM shares dropped more than 5% after hours after company reported “light” units and a 20% rise in profit with a 24% rise in revenue.

RIMM sold 11.2 million units (of which 4.9 million were new subscribers and the rest replacement units–a deterioration in replacement rate). This represents 43% growth. The unit growth is nearly double the revenue rise implying a lower ASP ($300–half the iPhone) and margin (45.4%).

RIM passed another milestone: 100 millionth BlackBerry was sold during the quarter. We’ve noted before that Apple will also pass its 100 millionth iOS device this month. RIM sold 20 million units as of October 2007, right on the heels of the iPhone launch. That means that iOS grew 100 million to BlackBerry OS growing 80 million in the same time frame.

So why are shares at a P/E of 13? 20% EPS growth would be respectable numbers, but the smartphone market is growing faster than that. The implication is that RIMM is losing share and everyone is expecting that loss to accelerate.

Simona Jankowski from Goldman Sachs repeats her Sell rating. “RIM has now missed top-line expectations for three of the last four quarters, in our view demonstrating the building competitive pressures on its business from the iPhone and more recently from Android,” she writes. “We estimate that net subscriber additions in North America declined on a sequential basis, which we attribute primarily to the success of Android-based phones, such as the Motorola Droid and the HTC Incredible at Verizon.”

Research In Motion Limited (USA): NASDAQ:RIMM quotes & news – Google Finance.

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YLE: Nokia’s smartphone share crumbles in Finland

Jun 23, ’10 6:13 PM

Roughly translated:

Nokia is rapidly losing share in the smartphone market in Finland. The iPhone is becoming a large part of the market.  Sales grew in the first quarter but a growing slice of revenues is going to Nokia’s competition.  iPhone share of the Finnish smartphone market has not been previously disclosed but Sonera Sales Director Juha Koivuniuemi reveals it to be more than 20 percent.

Nokian asema murenee huippupuhelimissa myös Suomessa | Talous ja politiikka | YLE Uutiset | yle.fi.

I should mention that I had previously estimated iPhone share at 17% in January.

Reminds me of another phenomenon: the iPhone in Japan.

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Analysts predict iPad sales (part III)

Jun 22, ’10 3:22 PM

Apple Sells Three Million iPads in 80 Days – Yahoo! Finance.

After 1 2 3 million units sold in 28 60 80 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1

Looks like at least half two thirds three quarters of these guys have already blown it.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).  It looks like I’ll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.

See: Analysts predict iPad sales Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)

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Apple considered less valuable than the average S&P 500 company [Updated]

Jun 19, ’10 11:23 PM

Apple just reached a new all-time closing high.  It’s remarkable that so soon after a recession the stock is enjoying new highs.  The Dow would have to gain 40% to make the same claim.

So some may ask whether Apple’s stock is getting ahead of itself.  Perhaps it’s showing signs of “irrational exuberance”.

This is not the case.  In fact, the stock is showing signs of irrational despondency.  This is demonstrated with the following graph.

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