July 2010
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Month July 2010

Apple’s Cash Update

During the last quarter, the company added $4.1 billion in cash to reach a total of $45.839 billion or $49.43 per fully diluted share.  This is divided into three types of holdings (long- and short-term marketable securities and cash equivalents). Some (most?) financial reporting services do not include long-term marketable securities in their databases. This [...]

Estimating Fourth Quarter Earnings for Apple

We expect revenue to be about $18 billion compared to $12.2 billion in the September quarter last year. We expect gross margins to be about 35%… We are targeting EPS of about $3.44. via Apple Inc. AAPL Q3 2010 Earnings Call Transcript. That $18 billion figure is extraordinary.  Consider that last year during the same quarter, [...]

3Q review: The iPod revenues increase again

The iPod touch increased sales 48% year-over-year.  The continuing mix shift toward iPod touch resulted in an overall iPod ASP increase of 12% to $164 (up from $143) generating total iPod revenue growth of 4%. Units declined 7.9%, inline with my expectations of -8%. I had forecast 9.40 and the actuals was 9.406 million. I [...]

3Q review: The iPad adds over $700 million of operating profit with an average selling price of $662

The iPad units numbers were not a surprise (except perhaps to some of the professional analysts who do not read Apple’s press releases). Among the more accurate (amateur) analysts, the range was from 3.2 to 3.45 million with an average of 3.32.  My estimate of 3.3 million was the mode of the distribution. Apple sold [...]

3Q review: Mac units grow 33%

Apple Reports Third Quarter Results. I was surprised by the poor predictions of Mac units by the analyst community with estimates ranging from 2.86 million to 3.51.  It was fairly clear to me early in the quarter that the product would get 30%+ growth.  There was little news except overall Mac momentum to shape the [...]

3Q review: iPhone revenues grow 74%

Calling the iPhone this quarter was going to be a challenge. This was a transition quarter where an old lead model would be replaced with a new one. The launch of the iPhone 4 was going to affect the volumes, but nobody could predict how. We’ve had a few such quarters and they were volatile. [...]

LG joins Nokia in missing estimates due to competitive pressures

Losses from mobile phones totaled 120 billion won ($101 million) in the second quarter, compared with profit of 620 billion won a year earlier, Seoul-based LG said in a statement today. The loss, the division’s first in four years, was triple the size projected by the average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. via [...]

Preference of next device by current smartphone owners

MacDailyNews – Yankee Groups Howe sets the record straight on Apple iPhone and Android devices. • No other manufacturer can claim nearly the loyalty of iPhone owners. RIM BlackBerry owners see a touch-screen device as the antithesis of their hard keyboards. However, even in this category, 23 percent of respondents plan to buy an Apple [...]

Accuracy of Sales and Earnings Estimate

Earnings Smackdown: The best and worst Apple analysts – Apple 2.0 – Fortune Tech. From the data above, it’s clear that although my accuracy on units and sales was pretty good, my EPS was too high. The reason for this was the lower margins for the iPad. It’s very likely that these margins will improve [...]

Accuracy of Apple unit volume forecast

From Apple’s FQ3 press release: “Apple sold 3.47 million Macs during the quarter, representing a new quarterly record and a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 61 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.41 million iPods during the quarter, representing [...]

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