July 2010
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Day July 26, 2010

Preference of next device by current smartphone owners

MacDailyNews – Yankee Groups Howe sets the record straight on Apple iPhone and Android devices.

• No other manufacturer can claim nearly the loyalty of iPhone owners. RIM BlackBerry owners see a touch-screen device as the antithesis of their hard keyboards. However, even in this category, 23 percent of respondents plan to buy an Apple iPhone. We see similar results with all other mobile phone owners. In fact, 36 percent of Google-branded Android phone owners say they plan to buy an iPhone, surpassing the 32 percent of Google-branded phone owners who intend to buy another Android phone.

Accuracy of Sales and Earnings Estimate

Earnings Smackdown: The best and worst Apple analysts – Apple 2.0 – Fortune Tech.

From the data above, it’s clear that although my accuracy on units and sales was pretty good, my EPS was too high. The reason for this was the lower margins for the iPad. It’s very likely that these margins will improve after the launch quarter (as they did for the iPhone).

Accuracy of Apple unit volume forecast

From Apple’s FQ3 press release:

“Apple sold 3.47 million Macs during the quarter, representing a new quarterly record and a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 61 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.41 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company began selling iPads during the quarter, with total sales of 3.27 million.”

My unit forecast.

In millions of units.

Product Asymco Actual Diff Error
iPhone 8.500 8.398 0.102 1.2%
Mac 3.462 3.472 -0.010 -0.3%
iPad 3.300 3.270 0.030 0.9%
iPod 9.398 9.406 -0.008 -0.1%

Rankings of various analyst forecasts are at :
Deagol’s blog.