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Day August 18, 2010

Analyst production forecasts for iPhone and iPad

On the iPhone, the firm raised their production forecasts from 14 million units to 18+ million, aided by easing constraints of display panels. Checks show consistent shortage of iPhone 4 inventory at Apple stores and there continues to be a three-week shipping delay from Apple’s online store, the firm notes. As a result the firm has increased confidence in its 4QFY10 iPhone unit estimate of 11.6 million, which is up 39% sequentially.

On the iPad, the firm’s build forecasts were revised up from 6 million to 7 million, which compares to their iPad shipments estimate of 4.75 million. The firm believes [there] is upside to the Q4 estimates and CY10 estimates of 13.4 million units, given the strong demand and anticipated production ramp heading into the back-to school and holiday seasons, as well as the high level of interest from business customers as expressed by AT&T.

via StreetInsider.com – All Apple (AAPL) Products Lines are Humming Along – Analyst.

These sound reasonable and credible. Note that production forecasts don’t translate into sales forecasts as there is inventory, and some of that inventory will be held by Apple and some by the manufacturer.

My Q4 estimate sits at 12.1 million iPhones and 4 million iPads.

iPad supply catching up with demand

Shipping delays have shrunk from 5-to-7 business days to 3-to-5 days which is great because now Apple will run more ads.

Apple – iPad – View photos and images of iPad.

But seriously, how long has it been? Five months with no iPads on hand? Now if only they had enough iPhone 4′s.

Here is the situation in Korea:

SEOUL (AFP)–South Korea’s KT Corp. (KT) said tens of thousands of people jammed its website Wednesday, as it began to take pre-orders for Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone 4.

KT Corp., the country’s sole distributor for the gadget, said in just four hours more than 70,000 people put their names down for the popular smartphone after its online shop opened.

“Our online shop server was jammed instantly as too many clients placed orders simultaneously,” KT spokesman Jin Byung-kwon said.

“So far, the number of orders for the iPhone 4 exceeds well beyond that of the iPhone 3GS,” he said.

See also: Apple’s supply problem