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Samsung's smartphones make up 10% of total sold. Nokia is at 30% and Motorola is over 40%.

Today’s chart: the percent of smartphones as part of the total phones sold for three vendors vendors that have traditionally sold a large portion of voice-oriented phones.

As these vendors switch to a higher mix of smartphones, their distribution network will ensure a continuing surge in overall smartphone penetration.

Most of Samsung’s increase has come in the last two quarters. Note also the rate of growth in Nokia’s mix. Motorola and Samsung owe it all to Android.

  • jon jordan

    NB – Samsung has sold at least one million bada devices so not technically "all to Android", just mostly

    • Steko

      I think what Horace is saying is that they own their more impressive growth rates to the relative quality of Android vs whatever in house alternative they would used if Android didn't exist. If Samsung only had bada their growth would look more like Nokias.

      • Billy

        Or rather with Bada their growth in Q2-Q3/2010 would look a lot more like their growth in Q2-Q3/2009 (ie. flat, even a decline).

        Nokia growth with Symbian doesn't look at all shabby, particularly when you consider this growth pre-dates the N8/E7/etc. and S^3 . And although the S^3 UI isn't a huge improvement over S60 it's still an improvement, so maybe it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect this growth rate to continue, and possibly even improve.

      • Steko

        Honestly the Bada reviews are a whole lot better then the Nokia ones, I'm not sure why they would be flatlining if all they had was bada.

        Horace's metapoint is that the market is going to fracture because everyone is growing in terms of smartphones moved. Even if you got the worst OS out there, like Nokia, you're looking at a strong growth line in the smartphone category.

  • vkp

    Thanks. In 2010, ~20% of all phones shipped were smartphones. Is 35% yearly growth rate a reasonable expectation or would it be higher fir the next 3-4 years?

    • asymco

      I believe it will be higher. In the last quarter the smartphone growth was nearly 90% y/y.

  • http://www.notesark.com iphoned

    It appears Samsung Android phones are now outselling iPhones in Japan. So much for all the theories. Does anyone have any more information?

    • kevin

      For one week, the Samsung Galaxy S finished first. The iPhone 4 16GB finished 2nd. The iPhone 4 32 GB finished 3rd. The two iPhones together sold many more than Galaxy S. (It is ludicrous to separate the iPhone 4 16 and 32 GB models as separate models. In other parts of the world, the Galaxy S goes by different names on each US carrier, and each carries different pre-installed apps. Like most people would, Samsung counts all of those variants in the US as one model, Galaxy S.)

      More critically, it was the Galaxy S' big launch week on the largest Japanese carrier, NTT DoCoMo, while the iPhone 4 has been available in Japan for over 4 months (though the wait is still 1-2 weeks) on the 3rd largest Japanese carrier, Softbank. Softbank has about 40% the number of subscribers of DoCoMo. Softbank, like AT&T, also has problems with consumers, see softbanksucks.blogspot.com. DoCoMo customers, meanwhile, have been iPhone-starved for 3 years.

    • kevin

      Not sure what you mean by "so much for all the theories." Rather, it exactly confirms all the "Android-can't-win-without-exclusivity" theories. iPhone is exclusive to Softbank in Japan, just like AT&T in US. DoCoMo is like Verizon Wireless.

    • asymco

      iPhones outsell Android phones in Japan. I suppose you are referring to the launch of the Galaxy S on DoCoMo (by far the largest carrier) causing it to be most popular single SKU.

      But this is not that interesting. I don't think the iPhone is the top selling single device model in any country it competes in.

      But more importantly, what theory are you suggesting is invalid even if the iPhone were to be outsold by Android?

  • http://twitter.com/TektonikShift @TektonikShift

    Given that most SmarthPhone growth over next 4 years is Asia (China, India), plenty of opportunity for Nokia to disrupt iPhone and Android.
    Recall, Nokia is will positioned in both regions.
    Nokia has the ability to offer a $100 (w/o subsidy) SmartPhone.
    Apple and Samsung cannot easily follow. Android is there, but not with fit-n-finish quality or brand name of Nokia.

    -Tek

    • asymco

      I strongly agree Nokia has room to grow for the reasons you cite. Disrupting iPhone and Android is very unlikely.

  • Abhi Beckert

    How do these metrics define “smartphone”? Nokia is the number one selling brand here in Australia, and 40% sounds accurate for phones with the feature checklist of a smartphone but the hardware (screen size, CPU speed, memory) of a non-smartphone.

    Just because a phone has a browser, emai client, and can run java apps doesn’t mean these features work well enough to actually be usable. I would guess less than 1% of nokia’s sales in Australia are “real” smartphones.

    • asymco

      Smartphones are phones running an operating system that has native APIs. This includes all phones running Symbian, BlackBerry OS, Android, WebOS, PalmOS, LiMo, Linux, Windows Mobile, Windows Phone, iOS, GEOS. The first smartphone was the Nokia 9000 released in 1996.