November 2010
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Day November 17, 2010

Samsung like Windows Phone, Android not so much

Samsung’s mobile marketing lead for the country, Sitthichoke Nopchinabutr, also provided a surprise and hinted that the company might turn on Google and focus primarily on Windows Phone. About 15 to 20 phones based on Android, Bada and Windows Phone would ship in 2011, but the majority of them would use the Microsoft OS. For every 50 Windows devices, 24 would be Android models and just five would use the in-house Bada OS.

via HTC, Samsung see Windows Phone, Android dominating phones | Electronista.


In three years Apple will still have a minority market share in smartphones

Morgan Stanley’s Web 2.0 update came out yesterday and it’s full of nice charts. Here is one:

Note that the expectation for smartphones to overtake all PCs (including netbooks) will happen when smartphones sell more than 450 million units per year.

In 2013 nearly 650 million smartphones are forecast to be shipped.

My estimate for the iPhone in that year is 180 million. That would give iPhone (excluding iPad and iPod) about 28% share. The last quarterly figure is around 17%.

Perhaps 180 million iPhones per year will be defined as failure by those who consider over 80% share as a threshold for success but I still think it will be a healthy business.

Even assuming a cut in ASP to about $350, Apple will still be able to get about $62 billion in sales from phones (a bigger number than 2009 total sales for the whole company).

I would also add that by the end of 2013 Apple will have sold about 470 million iPhones. Though many will be out of use by then, the installed base will not be small (I’d guess about 300 million). Including all iOS devices, 500 million is a credible estimated audience for developers.

It’s entirely possible that Android variants, offshoots and forks will add up to a bigger number by then, but to pre-emptively declare the platform “war” won because the also-ran Apple will only have half a billion users seems disingenuous.

Warner Music waits for Godot

You really can’t stress this point enough: We’re a decade past Napster, but the music industry still runs on CD sales. In Warner’s case, digital now accounts for 25 percent of overall revenue.

via Warner Music Renews Spotify’s European Deal, Waits for Google | Peter Kafka | MediaMemo | AllThingsD.

What’s even more amazing is that after ten years not a single industry participant has found a new job for which its product can be hired by consumers.

The music companies wait for Apple, Google, Spotify to  “invent” some new consumption model from which they can extract a rent.

The staggering size of iOS's game collection

iOS has nearly three times more games than the previous twenty-five years of gaming combined.

via The staggering size of iOS’s game collection.

Most of the comments in the linked article complain that there is no filter for “quality” in the App Store. Contrasts nicely with the persistent criticism that Apple curates the App Store.

Operators' last stand: payment platforms.

Operators “had high hopes until 2007 or 2008,” said Patrik Karrberg, a researcher in the London School of Economics’ Department of Management. The hopes dimmed after the emergence of iPhones and improved data speeds that made the Internet directly accessible on handsets.

“They gave up the idea of controlling the entry point,” Karrberg said. “That was the death of the portal.”

via Vodafone, France Telecom Push to Regain App Edge From Apple – Bloomberg.

It looks like a payment platform may be one of only a few opportunities remaining.