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Analyzing the iPad as a computer: from a whisper to a roar

[Goldman Sachs analyst Bill] Shope also expects both iPad and iPhone sales to exceed expectations in 2011; he sees sales of 37.2 million iPads next year, “which could potentially make Apple one of the largest vendors in the global personal computing market,” if you include both tablets and PCs.

via Apple: Goldman Pounds The Table; Sets $430 Target – Eric Savitz – Tech Musings – Forbes.

Apparently, it’s not just the crazy ones who dare to think the iPad is computer.

My forecast for iPad in calendar 2011 was set at about 33 million since last summer. I may raise it if Q4 units top 6 million.

Meanwhile…

He re-launched coverage of the stock for Goldman this morning, setting a Buy rating and $430 price target, while placing the stock on the firms “America’s Conviction List.”

I don’t make stock price forecasts as they are based on a random number called ‘sentiment’. But by forecasting earnings and assuming a range of P/E multiples between 15 and 20 (essentially in-line or below the S&P 500) values Apple’s stock at between $360 and $480 by this time next year.

Goldman’s target of $430 is about in the middle of this range so I don’t see it as requiring much in the way of conviction.