Apple now trading at 12.9 times Deagol’s fwd EPS estimate (10.5x after excluding cash).
Deagol’s AAPL Model: Fiscal 1Q 2011 Final Estimates.
The revenue growth rate is expected to continue at 66% (following 61% and 67% for previous two quarters). Earnings growth is also expected to be maintained at 70% as it has been over the full calendar year.
Apple continues to be one of the cheapest stocks in the S&P 500 when measured by growth multiples.
After years spent thinking about it, I can only conclude that the company’s depressed valuation is due to the uncertainty surrounding the CEO succession plans.
Windows Phone 7 launched on 10 devices over 60 carriers in over 30 countries with 1.5 million of channel inventory in 6 weeks. Given the breadth of distribution, that number is not huge, amounting to less than 10k phones per operator.
Curiously, Windows Mobile was still selling in significant volumes last quarter. Maybe even higher than WP7 is selling now. In Q3 2009 Canalys reported 3.6 million WinMo units sold. In Q3 2010 Gartner estimated 2.3 million were sold through to end users. Even nine months ago Windows Mobile was running at 3.7 million units or over 1.8 million every six weeks.
Microsoft also announced they have 18,000 developers with 4,000 apps on the WP7 marketplace. That’s one developer for every 83 devices in inventory.
Microsoft’s Achim Berg:
our numbers are similar to the performance of other first generation mobile platforms…
We’re comfortable with where we are, and we are here for the long run; Windows Phone 7 is just the beginning.
When Apple promoted HTML5 as an alternative to Flash, the value was said to be in being an open standard, and in having better efficiency for device-based execution.
The problem is that there are no authoring tools for HTML5. Flash is popular because it’s fairly easy to kick start the creative process. You buy the tools from Adobe for a few hundred dollars and begin to tinker. With HTML5 you need to be a programmer, read arcane documentation, search for sample code and manually integrate results into publishing systems. That’s bush league.
iAd Producer narrows the gap a bit.
The bigger question that I struggled with is whether web apps are competitive enough.
I am preparing a productization of the data underlying the models I use. I am working with Timetric.com to build the product and we are considering several options for packaging and pricing/access.
The first question I have is about how readers would like to see the data. I put up a poll to the right.
More questions will follow.