January 2011
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Day January 19, 2011

A new era in financial analysis is dawning

The story of amateur out-performance has been getting more attention lately and that’s a good thing. Success emboldens more amateurs to try their hand at financial analysis. Transparency of methods and data demystifies a practice that is not as complex, and a skill that is not as hard to obtain, as it’s often assumed.

While, quarter after quarter, the gap between the two cohorts is calibrated, what we haven’t heard much of is a defense from the professionals.

That’s a bit strange given the negative impact some of the attention must be having on their reputations. This is why I was glad to see that Adam Satariano’s well-written piece finally got some reactions from the professionals.

Unforeseeable growth: Analyst failure on iPad as indicator of disruptive change

Professional analysts’ first year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech   7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs           6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley     6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros.              5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets   5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray           3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital           2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital         2.5

Having added $20 billion last year, Apple's cash growth suggests total could top $100 billion next year

The following chart shows the value of Apple’s cash and cash equivalents for end of 2010: