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Unforeseeable growth: Analyst failure on iPad as indicator of disruptive change

Professional analysts’ first year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech   7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs           6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley     6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros.              5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets   5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray           3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital           2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital         2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna           2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank       2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch               1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams       1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel             1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer             1.1

Here are the predictions from Tech Bloggers:

  • Clayton Morris: 9
  • John Gruber: 8
  • Horace Dediu: 6
  • Natali Del Conte: 5
  • Ross Rubin: 5
  • Mike Rose: 4.5-5
  • Jason Snell: 3
  • Andy Ihnatko: 3

Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010.

I sometimes use the phrase “unforeseeable growth” to describe the kind of growth that not even the most knowledgeable observers of a market can predict. It’s usually an indicator that fundamentally transformational change is taking place.

It’s not a sufficient condition, but it’s clear that “nobody saw it coming” is a common refrain when disruptions are seen in the rear-view mirror.

If analysts, to a man, fail, you can be sure that competitors are no wiser. This collective shrug amounts to the greatest competitive advantage any entrant could ever hope to obtain.

  • rattyuk

    I was hoping someone would pick these figures up.

  • Larry Fritzlan

    Unbelievable! This company is a different paradigm, doing business in a way that most just don't get!

  • http://twitter.com/_ChrisHarris @_ChrisHarris

    I watched Clayton Morris' Fox show on the internet and it's worth pointing out that John Gruber was last in making an estimate out of the pundits, and when he said '8' everyone laughed. Clayton Morris then said just as a joke 'well I'm going to say nine then'. So while Gruber (where the figures come from) has fessed up correctly that Clayton Morris said '9' there was no way that he actually believed or had given any thought to his prediction.

    • arjun_

      I didn't know that, thanks for pointing out. That provides interesting perspective to the 'most right' number.

    • poke

      I saw this and you're right. Morris just added a million to Gruber. At the time I didn't think Gruber was completely serious either. He said 8 million in a way that implied (to me, at least) that he'd just plucked a number out of the air.

    • Mozz

      I think there was a fear of sounding like a fan boy if you guessed high.

    • dchu220

      Gruber actually said in his podcast that he grabbed that number out of thin air and wasn't prepared for the question.

    • maddoguk69

      You see that "-28" ranking? Possibly even lower by now… that should tell you that you're probably in the wrong place.

      Just sayin'

  • CndnRschr

    Perhaps everyone can claim they actual meant sales in the Holiday quarter….. even then, the level of predictions are still low. Hindsight is 20:20. 2010 – the lost year for every other tablet-producer wannabe.

  • http://twitter.com/BrianSHall @BrianSHall

    That last paragraph nails it: "If analysts, to a man, fail, you can be sure that competitors are no wiser."

    In a world of personal computers (PCs), laptops, and smartphones, the iPad is not 'pesronal' it is 'communal'. A device to be shared, at home and in business. The competition continues to focus on building what are in effect, larger iPod Touches, designed for the individual.

    • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

      Communal is probably a good way to describe it although real sharing is out of the picture since it doesn't support multiple user accounts. I wonder how many households start off with one iPad before quickly realising it's single user. For 'Hey, look at this' stuff though, it's great.

      • http://twitter.com/BrianSHall @BrianSHall

        Correct. No multiple accounts. And per other commenter, you don't necessarily want to share a device that has your Facebook and Twitter accounts exposed. I was referring more to the combination of software, always-on functionality, and form factor. All other tablets are like large iPod Touches, designed strictly for personal use. The iPad can be shared, can be passed around. It encourages this, in fact. No other device really does this. You can lay it down and someone can pick it up and start browsing the web, for example, or a Keynote presentation. It's easily passed around in meetings, or from a receptionist to patient. It is not a desktop, not a laptop, nor inherently mobile, like the smartphone. It's its own category.

        More here if you like, though I've pretty much summed up my views: http://brianshall.com/content/communal-computing-

      • davel

        i dont get it.

        i read your link and i still do not get the communal argument, what is different about the tablet – ipad if you will – that a phone isnt? the phone is a phone and the tablet is bigger., is it the size of the screen that makes you want to share?

      • http://www.jeffknox.com Laird Knox

        I think it is more a function of how you use the device, not in how it differs in functionality. I can see people passing around a tablet more than a phone.

        "Take a look at these pictures."

        It is also easier to shoulder surf a tablet. A 3-4" device isn't "communal" in the same way.

      • http://twitter.com/BrianSHall @BrianSHall

        davel,
        that was one of my more popular posts so hopefully i explained it well;-)
        i think of most tablets as large iPod Touches, with the possibility of being netbook replacements.
        The iPad is different. You don't really have to boot it up. It's always on. It's not designed for highly specific programs (e.g. Word, Excel) but for a variety of tasks. It is primarily a large screen, making it highly visual. It is 'mobile' in the sense that it is easier to carry than a PC or laptop, but realistically too heavy to carry for such common tasks as web browsing, watching a movie, playing a game, reading a book. I think the form factor is what so many analysts missed on. THey instantly thought: large iPod Touch but too heavy. I'm suggesting it's various strengths (size, always on, screen-intensive, highly intuitive) are designed not for any traditional purposes (or to replace traditional devices) but a whole new category: 'communal' computing. I take it in my room and watch a movie. Then leave it there. My brother picks it up and plays a game. My dad takes it to the office and shows off a QuickTime video and passes the device around.

        Hope that helps. Bottom line is that I do not view the iPad as a netbook replacement nor large screen iPod. It is (creating) a new category.

        Thanks for reading my post.

    • Ballesta

      I don't think analysts have any edge over competitors. In my experience in management of a listed company where I frequently interact with them, the analysts often have no clue what they are writing about (including some respected people from top tier banks). And I'm in a boring old economy business, not the bustling tech sector. To be fair, the analysts' job is, in part, to simplify the complexity of a real world business into catchy phrases that sales people can use to sell stocks to clients. But there are way too many clueless analysts.

    • http://twitter.com/diskgrinder @diskgrinder

      very insightful. This is exactly what I found: I bought "my" iPad for me my family is the owner now

  • Xavier Itzmann

    "collective shrug"

    Apple sold 10 million iPod Touch. $230 e.a.

    What's genuinely amazing is that everyone seems to willingly ignore this 2.3$ Bn. market.

    • asymco

      This is the stealth story nobody can be bothered to hear.

      • chano

        And Samsung's effort is just a knee-jerk reaction, with no commitment or eco-infrastructure. They lose credibility by even trying only to define failure in the process. A seemingly dumb move from a company that is not dumb in fact. Today's consumer sees it all. Credibility today means having done he backstory work to underpin 'joy and delight', usefulness, interoperability within a family of integrated devices where the future (brand strength, OS upgrades, product longevity, product evolution, etc) is assured and of course, with easy access to content.
        iPod Touch was a masterstroke – a wolf in sheep's clothing whose impact is yet to be felt or understood.

      • arjun_

        I agree. Also, if I recall correctly, this is the first time there was an explicit mention of the split between Touch/non-Touch. I was a bit surprised that no analyst picked up on that and probed further.

      • FalKirk

        Good point. But no analyst even asked about the server farm in North Carolina either. Metaphorically speaking, they had a lot on their plate already.

      • Mozz

        One of the amazing things I have seen over and over again is parents buying the iPod Touch for their kids so they will stop asking to use their iPhone. Once a kid gets an iPod Touch you can almost guarantee they will get an iPhone when they become a teenager.
        The iPod touch plays such a critical role in the iOS ecosystem.

      • Horace the Grump

        Totally agree – I've pick up a number of anecdotal data points that the iPod Touch is a very hot device..

        Just one.. a 10 your old cousin on seeing I had an iPhone 4 demanded that he be able to play with my iPod Touch – he thought I had the Touch when in fact I had an iPhone… he was really put out when I pointed out to him that it was in fact an iPhone 4 and, no he wasn't going to be allowed to play games on it…

        Eventually he decided to get out his 'cruddy' PSP and play on that…

        The point being that the only thing he cared about was holding/using an iPod Touch – the bragging rights at school must have been worth quite a lot. And he really really wanted one for Christmas.

    • Woochifer

      And those sales are just for the 4th quarter. The iPad gets all of the attention because it's the newest shiny object. But, the iPod touch is the gardener that plants the seeds.

      • FalKirk

        A good metaphor.

        I also think that people haven't realized that the iPod Touch, iPhone and iPad are today's equivalents of yesterday's iPod Shuffle, iPod Nano and iPod Classic. People keeping opining for a smaller, cheaper iPhone without realizing that it's already here in the guise of the iPod Touch.

  • Chuck

    My iPad is most definitely NOT communal. Once you enable email, Facebook, Twitter, and any number of other apps tied to one's identity, the ability for it to be communal ceases. I am sure there are some families that share one, but I think it's in appropriate to extrapolate one's own usage patterns to the broader market. My experience in the workplace shows that with the exception of a single user, everyone is actually using the iPad as a laptop replacement in the corporate environment. A single-user device. I know of no one that shares the iPad for very long before making it a single-user device, for privacy and security if no other reason.

    • CndnRschr

      I agree. It *can* be used communally but usually isn't. Apple has deemed not to include user-specific log-ins and fast user switching for whatever reason and this means that you either use the iPad as a personal device with all of your settings available to whomever you give the access password to, or it is used as a communal device for accessing information that you don't mind sharing. I think the personal approach makes good business sense as these devices will get passed along into families (much like iPhones). With the greater penetration of workplaces, perhaps Apple will address the security issues. In the meantime, using a password manager like 1Password allows me to share my iPad with others I trust (but this doesn't hide my emails and MobileMe shared data (address book, bookmarks, calendar, etc).

    • Mozz

      One iPad per child. Thats the future

      • FalKirk

        Well, if I can be counted as one of the children, then yes, I concur.

      • dchu220

        Aren't guys just oversized children?

    • http://franksting.net.au Gavin Costello

      Chuck, having just got an iPad for my Wife for Christmas, absolutely agree. Either Apple create a multiple account scenario (preferably in iTunes as well, because that situation is a bit of a nightmare too) or it must remain a personal device.
      But OTOH, my kids love the iPad. They are 5 and 3 and they want it ALL the time. And they use it. Which causes separate problems because the Parental Controls on the iPad (and esp when it syncs with the computer) are also lacking. e.g. no feedback that parental controls are enabled on the iPad when you go to sync with the computer

  • Rob Scott

    The iPad has been an amazing success. All those who dismissed it as just a 'large iPod' must be eating their words right now. What the iPad represent is a paradigm shift, computing will never be the same again. I wonder what the units will be like for 2011. I hope Apple moves at least 30 million. Damn.

    • Les S

      When the iPad first came out my initial reaction was great just a scaled-up iPod Touch/iPhone. I was disappointed and was concerned that it just wasn't a hybrid of the desktop and touch UI; that it didn't have a camera; that it didn't have a host of things that would make me happy. I forgot that I'm a geek. Also, when I first saw it in person my view of it changed. I started to look at the iPhone (etc) as mini-versions of the iPad. When my wife saw it she was instantly hooked. From that moment on I knew that I was not the target audience (or many of my Mac Geek using brethren for that matter). My wife on the other hand was a perfect representation of that audience. At that point I thought Apple was taking a big gamble by not priming the pump with the target audience I represented as they had in the past. They went right for someone like my wife. And wow are they a big group. And this I think is what everyone hasn't gotten a handle on. This much larger group of simply non-geek people who don't want or need all of those shiny thing-a-ma-jigs that gets my target audience all worked-up. I think that for the most part Apple's competitors still haven't figured that out either and they will continue to pay for that. But heck, even if they do figure it out Apple already has first mover advantage and they're also on their way to making anything the competitors try to produce prohibitively expensive (think flash memory and displays) to produce.

      • Rob Scott

        100% correct!

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        Spot on. I had the same reaction to the iPhone and the iPad and still to this day they just aren't good enough for me. No ssh, no vnc, no voip, no proper multitasking, fullscreen apps. Ugh! just awful.

        If Nokia brought out a Maemo (or MeeGo but too early to tell yet – they might dumb it down) powered iPad clone I'd be all over it in a shot as the N900 I have is by far the most useful tool I have. It's a hackers delight. If I give the N900 to my partner though, she'd recoil in horror. Sometimes you just have to accept that Apple pitch things below you.

      • davel

        the point about most apple products is they are not a hackers delight.

        despite the unix roots they dont want you to hack.

        i can use citrix to connect to work. its passable. i would have to buy the keyboard to make it really work, but then i am back to the pc.

        multitasking is a double edged sword. they need to improve the management of it. i think the interface is a bit cludgy and it drains the battery. they need to do something where u can toggle multitasking.

      • David

        I disagree. First, OS X is Unix. Pretty hacky. My first PC in college in 1988 was a Mac II because it was the only "affordable" PC that run 32bit unix, in this case A/UX. That box was $10k, but we got them for $4k with an educational discount.

        I still run, as a software developer of 16 years mostly PCs for Windows and Linux either hosted or via VMWare for dev work.

        I still think that's Apple's products appeal is that they are attractive to techie and non-techie alike. I love the iPad, yet my 7 yr old daughter can use it. To my knowledge, that is a feat unmatched by any other company. I suspect that Android will not have the reach because it seems to lack the usability that iOS brings to the table.

        Did you see the video of Honeycomb? Really, it looked like Vista. Too busy and I suspect that this UI will be like GoogleTV, another usability nightmare.

      • lb51

        I personally find no value in hacking. My time is worth too much and my business would suffer for such activities. I'll leave the hacking to the smaller subset. My focus is on revenue growth, not technical tweaking and Apple products have helped my business increase not only profit, but revenue.

        Using Apple products since 2008, left the Windows/Intel solution after 20+ years of wasted time.

      • David

        I agree. Time is too short and I have many demands on my time. Rooting(or jailbreaking) my phone doesn't put any money in my pocket.

        And really, it doesn't teach me anything either.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        Usually I'd agree. That's why I have a Mac instead of a PC running Windows or Linux. Time is too short.

        You don't need to root an N900 though – it's already completely open. It's open like a Mac. That's why I like it.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        And personally I do find a lot of value in hacking a device into the shape I need and my business would suffer if I couldn't. I'm a web developer and Linux server admin. My focus is on being able to support my customers from anywhere and supporting and monitoring linux based servers in remote datacenters. As you can guess, that needs a bit more than an iPhone/iPad.

        I've used Apple products since the 1990s and still do but as I said, sometimes they pitch their products below me. OSX is the best desktop OS available currently and that's what I use. But for mobile use I find iOS is a compromise too far. I don't care – it's not aimed at me obviously.

      • Rob Scott

        Nokia does not have an answer to the iPad (and/or Honeycomb, Playbook, HP webOS), not for 2011 at least. None of their current OSes are suitable for tablets (even phones, but that is a different discussion). Maybe they will have something to sell in 2012, but until then there is no reason to even mention them.
        Do no get me wrong, I still think Nokia is a great company, still moves tons of units and if you take out Symbian drop-outs (Sony, Samsung, LG, etc) Nokia has fought a good fight with Symbian. So its a capable company.
        So while you are waiting for Nokia to have something to sell, why don't you try an iPad, you might like it.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        Actually, if they'd taken Maemo 5 from the N900 and scaled it up to iPad size it'd have been ok. Certainly it'd have been better than Android on a tablet. Pehaps it would have been a bit geeky still with it's Linux package managers and Terminal but the actual UI and OS is relatively easy to get around.

        Symbian is not an iPad sized tablet OS and doesn't pretend to be. Then again I find Apple's scaling up of iPhoneOS to iPad completely bonkers. I'm obviously wrong as they've sold millions of them but then again, lots of people buy ugly Ford cars too. I disagree about Symbian not being a good phone OS. It's rock solid IME and supports more phone features than the other guys. But that is another argument.

        Switching to MeeGo and Qt has delayed them with their internet tablet plans. You have to remember they've been doing 'internet tablets' since 2005 as a kind of hobby project. There's almost certainly going to be a MeeGo tablet out mid-2011. I'd bet on it. Maybe a superphone also although I'd hope they concentrate on Symbian for phones still. I just hope they don't dumb MeeGo down to iPad levels in order to compete and that freedom and power in Maemo is maintained.

        In the meantime, yes I've tried an iPad. It's a nice toy. I'll stick with the N900 for doing work.

      • http://www.cyclelogicpress.com Neil Anderson

        Apple was working on a tablet first. When Steve Jobs saw what the team had done, he figured they could make it into a phone. So actually iOS is scaled down to the phone, not up to the iPad.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        Yes, that's what he said but you're taking it out of context. The iPad was originally just a pad for Safari – that's all it did. So they've scaled multitouch and Safari down to the phone but the rest of the UI is obviously UP from the iPhone and personally I don't find it works as well on a bigger screen like the iPad. A calculator app works great on an iPhone sized screen but it's silly on an iPad.

        They obviously realised some of that as the iPad got a lot of new UI elements like pop-up menus that the iPhone didn't have and they ditched some of the iPhone apps like the calculator and anything else widget-sized.

        I think they could have solved it with a kind of Dashboard layer/screen but they've not, yet.

      • James Katt

        The problem for any company trying to compete against the iPad is that "scaling up" any cell phone operating system is going to be very difficult.

        Realize that Apple initially was going to create the iPad BEFORE it thought of the iPhone. It has been working on the tablet concept and perfecting it for years.

        The process for any other company is going to be the same. If they try to rush out the design and interface, it is going to look awful compared to the iPad.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        Well, Nokia haven't been rushing and they've certainly made some awful attempts in the past as they've been not scaling up a phone OS for their Maemo based tablets. :)

        Time for them to quit experimenting though.

      • Yowsers

        "But heck, even if they do figure it out Apple already has first mover advantage and they're also on their way to making anything the competitors try to produce prohibitively expensive (think flash memory and displays) to produce."

        In line with that, I keep marveling at the first mover advantage (or first mover to do it right advantage) of the ecosystem originating from iTunes, of the well-thought-out integrated OS, and how expensive/difficult that has become to challenge. A number of competitors know they can't pull together a solution like this and pretend it doesn't matter; others try and get mixed results, or outright failures.

        For a large set of users, it won't matter, necessarily. They don't really use a smartphone much beyond a feature phone.

    • FalKirk

      "All those who dismissed (the iPad) as just a 'large iPod' must be eating their words right now."

      No they aren't. They'll just fall back on their next line of defense: "The iPad is a toy", or "The iPad is a consumption only device", or "The iPad is for consumers, not business", or the coup de grace, the final line of defense, "The iPad is only for Apple fanboys."

      It seems to me that there are two kinds of bloggers – those who want to conform their opinions to the facts and those who want to lecture the rest of us on why their opinions are superior to the facts. I come to ASYMCO to converse with the former. I do my best to ignore the latter.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        Chuckle. And I've just called it a toy.

        Sorry, but that's my opinion. There are just too many things it doesn't do or won't let you do for it to be useful to me. I'd love one for browsing the web on the sofa but I'm not going to spend £500+ for that.

    • dchu220

      You've got a 'large ipod'? That sounds awesome!

  • FalKirk

    Even Apple didn't see how quickly the iPad would be adopted. If they had, they would have had sufficient quantities on had to satisfy the demand. Here is a short snippet from the Apple's Q3 2010 Earnings call:

    "We are very pleased with the adoption of the iPad across, and in, segments that we believe are relatively new frontiers or virgin frontiers for Apple. It's been quicker than we thought, and deeper than we thought."
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/235388-pc-mall-ce

    • TomCF

      I'm not so sure about that. I would think supplies of parts would be an issue (they already have been snatching up a LOT of flash memory), and the conservative projections don't hurt, but overly optimistic ones would.

      They need enough initial demand to stoke the fire, but I bet they don't lose many customers, just delay them. When they introduced the product they had essentially zero competition, and what is coming down the pipe is still behind what Apple is delivering.

      Other than getting cash sooner (hardly a problem for Apple), what's the benefit of being way over the top optimism? (As opposed to nearly double the most optimistic pundits optimism.)

    • KenC

      I always thought comments like that were fake humility. If Apple really were surprised at the rate of adoption, then they would have rollout schedules that were delayed due to high demand.

      • unhinged

        As opposed to the devices being out of stock? Apple has separate launch dates in each country for a reason, and even then they couldn't meet the demand.

      • FalKirk

        Their rollouts WERE delayed. They had to cap pre-orders. I think their rollout of the 3G model was delayed by an additional week? And then their European rollout was delayed by an additional week or month? Other rollouts were delayed too although I can't remember the specifics. And the iPad didn't come to China until. what, September?

        Apple just announced that they finally had enough supply to meet demand. They started selling iPads in an additional 20 countries during the December quarter and they're planning on adding another 15 countries in January.
        http://seekingalpha.com/article/247197-apple-mana

        So no, I don't think there was any fake humility. They simply didn't anticipate the demand and make enough iPads.

  • Charel

    So Steve Jobs was right, when he described the iPad as the best he had ever done. And I mean Jobs and the Apple team.
    They saw what no one else saw, a huge hole in the computing market waiting to be filled. The iPad is used by individuals and families in the home, by business men and employees in business and by politicians everywhere. Who could have imagined that?

    • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

      Admittedly he says that about everything Apple do when they launch a new product.

    • FalKirk

      Agreed. I would argue that the iPad is even more important than the iPhone. The iPhone redefined a category. The iPad created a category.

  • davel

    are these initial estimates or does it include revisions?

    i see there are some prominent analysts that did not make a prediction.

    i know i did not think it would do anything like this. When it was announced I shrugged. When i held it and played with it I was still unsure.

    It took a week of using it to understand its power.

    The rumored changes will make it even more useful. They still need to work on some things, but this is the best 1.0 product I have ever seen.

    • asymco

      Original estimates as of April when the product was first introduced but before it went on sale.

  • O.C.

    The iPad is just like a period in the 80s when people started to ditch their conventional analog watch for cheap plastic digital Japanese made watches. Eventually that died down and they got back to using conventional real watches. To this day I still don't see what an iPad possesses that trumps a light mobile laptop other than that is just a nice toy to have.

    • Charel

      No, It is more like the first electronic calculators that everyone bought as soon as they could afford one.

    • asymco

      It's hard isn't it?

    • O.C.

      "Watches today are more of accessory than a tool"

      That exactly how I would describe a Tablet.

      • CndnRschr

        Then you do not "get it". The netbook was the device that made multiple compromises of an established paradigm by reducing the power of the processor, the size of the keyboard, the width of the screen, the amount of memory, etc. all in the name of portability and, more importantly, price. The iPad is not competing with the netbook as it doesn't attempt to compromise in the same way (i.e. a mini version of anything) and instead offers a different series of capabilities while deliberately omitting others. It is arguably a best in class device for watching video, with instant-on, loooong battery life, ultra-ease-of-use and, relatively speaking, cheap. Moreover, it seamlessly hooks into the infrastructure of the AppStore, iTunes and the web. The only technology dropped was Flash (for various reasons including political) but since it was building on the iOS momentum (160 million devices), Apple took the gamble that content providers would follow the money, not the legacy.

        The iPad is not an accessory in the sense of the word. It is a tool. An accessory adds features to another device and is useless without it. A tool allows work to be done and is independent. You may argue that the iPad needs to be tethered to a PC occasionally to update its OS and for back up, but that is almost akin to tethering an external hard drive to a PC. You can buy and update apps and media without any tethering. In terms of content creation, there are apps that enable this and many examples of beautiful writing and art developed using this tool.

        It looks like RIM is approaching the tablet sector very much as an accessory. This might work for them, but maybe not. The Android and HP (webOS) tablets are very much stand-alone. This will evolve and there is room for more than one paradigm.

      • O.C.

        My comment may have used the iPad as an example, but i was talking about tablets in general.
        I would like you to tell me what you can do on a tablet that you could not do on a lightweight – not a netbook – laptop with tablet features. You can already get apps on a mac these days that argument is off the table. You can have two OS's on a single device. Tabletmode and laptopmode…starts in a sec. Best in its class to watch video's. Right, because holding a screen for an hour is comfy.

      • CndnRschr

        Aside from the fact that a light weight laptop commands a significant price premium over a tablet like the iPad…. What you can do on a true tablet is manipulate everything with gestures. As we've seen with Windows 7, grafting on a touch GUI is about as compelling to use as a monocycle. I personally think that adding a keyboard to a tablet (like an iPad) is a waste of time. If you want to do *that* much typing, a laptop is better. So its not a question of what can be done, but the ease at which it can be done. A tablet offers a cheap and casual way to check email, surf web sites, play games, etc without having to get into laptop "mode". I use both and when I'm at home at the weekend, I rarely use my laptop. It's just that extra hassle. If you take plane flights, the iPad offers a much better experience than a laptop for watching movies (particularly in coach). Ditto for trains and buses.

        It is not a question of what can a tablet do that a laptop can't. It's what is the best experience. Trying to force a PC operating system into a tablet could create equivalency in specifications, but that would be at the expense of usability. A tablet will only be compelling if it offers a better solution in a given situation. It is the more casual nature of interactions with a tablet that is the compelling feature. Compare a meeting where people have laptops to one in which they have iPads. Two very different environments. It's not to say one is better than the other, but one situation may be more productive/appropriate than the other.

        There are companies coming out with hybrid tablet-enabled laptops. I think they'll fall flat as they compromise each format (lowest common denominator effect). Some people may be willing to take this compromise. Others will simply buy two devices, each optimized to its format. The Motorola Atrix is an interesting design but again suffers from trying to be all things. Ditto the dual touch screen Toshiba laptop. Horrible usability due to the mixed metaphor in the GUI. Just my thoughts though. There's always room for innovation and who knows what people really want?

      • lb51

        Why not discover for yourself. Maybe you need one, maybe not. Your reality need not matchup to others. Instead of trying to analyze the why, try figuring out why not. If you're still begrudged, then move along and leave history to itself. Trying to argue for the sake of arguing is derailing dialogue.

      • O.C.

        First: Begrudged. If I wanted one, I would buy one.
        Second: Nobody is arguing here, its a normal discussion and in a normal discussion you voice your opinion. If you call that an argument.

      • Robbo

        What can be done with an iPad and and not a laptop is my parents can download programs (apps) and then remove completely them when they have had enough. On a laptop that is an exercise in frustration.

      • David

        Criminey. So don't get one. 14.2 million people disagree with you. Personally, I don't like laptops. I'm 6'5". My hands are large enough to palm a basketball and I find laptops too small. . I work in a desktop with 3 monitors.

        I only used a laptop to in my family room to connect to my desktop. Tell me what I can do on a laptop that I cannot do with a full powered fast desktop. And I get 3 monitors to boot. Laptops don't run as fast, are not as upgradeable, harder to fix and most expensive for similar hardware.

        Because I don't like them, they must suck as a class of device, ultimately useless to all if I use your logic.

        I no longer use my laptop because my IPad took over 97% of my tasks. The remaining 3% I do on my wife's laptop.

      • O.C.

        Well personally i don't like laptops either. I've worked on them, but never bought one. I prefer a desktop. But just like they rolled multiple devices into a smartphone, so to will they do it with tablet. They will go the way of average digital camera's. Since everyone already has on in their mobile phone, there is no need to get a dedicated digital camera. Unless your a professional photographer.

      • http://twitter.com/gingerjet @gingerjet

        Doesn't a netbook with "tablet" features make it a tablet?

      • djk

        I'm not convinced that a non-Apple tablet would be worth it (although now that Apple has paved the path is will be much easier for others to follow the template).

        You are talking about form-factor and hardware when the most amazing thing about the iPad (& iPhone) is the software.

        The success of the iPad is as much the iOS software as it is the hardware. It is amazingly simple and intuitive and elegant and convenient. It is an enabler for people who would never dare to tinker with their PC or Mac for fear of breaking it. The ability to discover an app and be using it 5 minutes later is amazing for those people. The app store and associated infrastructure for delivering applications has always been there (since "ancient" times – see the BSD ports system circa 1994) but Apple put it to use and "brought it to the people". The iPad is an Application and Media console and this concept is the fundamental difference between the netbook and iPad. You could put a touchscreen on a netbook. You could even bundle software that takes advantage of the touch screen. But until you integrate the touchscreen into the very foundations of the OS… and with the appstore… and with the itunes store… you don't have an iPad.

        The hardware does have its role – recent advances in battery & screen technology have perhaps made this possible where it wasn't in the past – but it is the software which makes it something different than yet another awkward windows device that doesn't quite feel right or yet another niche device like the kindle.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        Ah the rewriting of history continues. There have been many tablet OSs before the iPad. Apple just got it right and marketed well.

        There will be many tablet OSs to come, some better, some worse, depending on your needs. This is good as one manufacturer defining 'tablets' isn't healthy.

      • TomV

        Here's one thing you can do: give it to your mom so she can read her online newpaper in bed in the morning.

        She knows more or less to use email and Office, but barely and she thinks it's very complicated.

        I gave her my old iPad for Xmas to see how it went and now, one month later, she absolutely loves it.

        Your laptop with tablet features would not have worked.

        An iPad is not something you need. It's a best in class device for some kinds of internet usage. I'm still use it every day (the one of my GF that is) and that's despite having a MacBook Air 11". (Which is by far the best laptop I've ever had.)

      • dchu220

        Hey O.C. The difference I think is that:

        You look at the iPad as an accessory to the PC while I look at the PC as an accessory to the iPad.

        Also. The reason watches became accessories is because other things came in that did the job, like cellphones. I have a watch that I never wear, but even when I have it on, when people ask me what time it is I still pull out my cellphone.

      • TomV

        Nicely put: that's exactly how I use the laptop at home. For those 10% of things (like writing long emails) that I don't like to use the iPad for.

        (Work is, of course, a different story…)

    • Larry Fritzlan

      Seriously, you need to live with it for awhile. I got my iPad when they came out and slowly I've replaced my laptop for all but writing. And I have a whole new activity that I did not have before. I grab it, toss it, throw it, shove it in ways that I never did with my MacBook Pro. It has become a new and different gadget. It goes places that my laptop did not go. And I think it took all this time for me to evolve to this new behavior with it.

      • http://twitter.com/talkingnewmedia @talkingnewmedia

        Absolutely. To truly understand the device it has to be sitting in your family room unused for a week or so. Then suddenly everyone in the family is picking it up — to read, to play games, to stream movies from Netflix, etc.

        A laptop will be able to do almost everything an iPad can, but so what? But would you really want to read the Saturday morning newspaper on your computer?

        I think the biggest sales pitch that exists for the iPad is seeing one in someone's family room and casually picking it up and using it. Yes, it's just a big iPhone. And yes, a laptop can do all the things an iPad can. But it can't be convenient, easy and casual. I throw my iPad around the room like the winter afghan. If someone tossed my MacBook Pro around like that I'd scream.

    • Robbo

      I like reading the New York Times on the iPad. No matter how much I try I can't get into reading it using the browser or the Chrome web app. The iPad app just seems so natural. And I don't live in the USA so I can't get the paper version.

    • FalKirk

      "To this day I still don't see what an iPad possesses that trumps a light mobile laptop…."

      You are very wrong in your assessment, but you are very, very far from being alone in your assessment. Even visionaries like Bill Gates, who saw the value of a tablet, missed the subtle difference between adapting a mouse driven interface to a tablet as opposed to creating a tablet specific touch driven interface.

      And as to the question of how a tablet, that does nothing different than a phone or a notebook, could find a prominent place between the two, the answer, again, is subtle. It's because the tablet, while doing little different, does what it does BETTER. When people have the option of using a phone, a tablet or a notebook, they choose the tablet. It is the device of FIRST resort.

      If I gave you a choice of driving a motorcycle, a car or a truck, which would you choose? A motorcycle is cheaper, less space consuming and more fun. A truck is more durable, more versatile, more useful. But a car is best suited for what most people do most every day. Similarly, an iPad does what most people do most of the time, and it does what it does better than anything else.

      You're asking the wrong question. You're asking "Which is the better computer." People don't want a better computer any more than they want a better drill. What they want is a hole. The question you should be asking is: "Which device solves my problem?" For many – I would argue, for most – the answer is an iPad.

      • David

        Ric Edelman?

      • asymco

        "People don't want a better computer any more than they want a better drill. What they want is a hole."

        Classic.

        Corollary: Customers rarely buy what Companies think they're selling.

    • Stephen_M

      What an iPad possesee that a laptop doesn't is an easy one to answer: simplicity.

      The abstraction of using a mouse / trackpad goes away. The level of maintenance that the OS requires is an order of magnitude lower and what it DOES need is as close to automated as you'd ever want. The same goes for the apps, updates are flagged up when available and one action starts them downloading and installing. Finding new apps is trivial, backing up the device is automatic, getting content on to it is either automatic or extremely easy thanks to iTunes as is purchasing new stuff.

      More than that though, all of the stuff that people complain about being missing is what makes the iPad appealing. For the VAST majority of people they don't care about having the nth degree of flexibility, they just want something that works. Let me throw up an example to illustrate this a bit better: A few days ago I saw someone arguing that iPad 2 MUST include much better support for getting data off cameras (both still and video) as so many people want to use it as a portable image manipulating system. Fair enough, but that market is miniscule compared to those who will take an iPad 2, use the built-in camera to take their pics or movies, chuck 'em into iMovie or (and I do believe this is coming for iOS) iPhoto, tweak it a bit then upload the result directly from the iPad to Facebook / YouTube / Whatever.

      Actually I'll go one better than that to sum this up. Go back to the original iPhone keynote and there's a line in there that sums up iOS perfectly. "You can touch your music". That's EXACTLY what the iPhone, iPod Touch and now iPad do, they remove the 'computer' from the equation and make it feel like you're interacting with your data, web pages, content etc directly. It's what the geekier crowd always fail to understand and why MS are lagging so far behind. When it comes to the consumer market emotion is key and Apple are one of very few companies who really deiiver on that.

    • Luis

      @O.C. You don't get it no matter how many people try to explain
      Try using an iPad for a week, with an open mind, look for apps that can address gaps in capturing your thoughts, notes, to-dos directly in digital mode! Examples of where an iPad is useful vs a laptop: in bed, while nursing a baby, in bathroom ;o) in the back of a small car, on a plane in economy, etc…

  • http://twitter.com/judsontwit @judsontwit

    I think, in the case of the tablet market, you are right that it could be argued the shock unforeseen by analysts and competitors could be a great competitive advantage.

    However, I think there is something slightly different at work here.

    Note that the actual competitor – in this case, Google and Android tablet makers – accelerated their efforts to clone the iPad product description even when analysts said it was worthless.

    That is, Google and Apple's competitors learned this time, don't wait three years for Apple to disrupt a category. And while they are still behind, they are not nearly as behind as they were in smartphones back in 2007.

    The fallacy here of course is that in placing overexaggerated value on Apple's vision, rather than learning to create disruptions themselves, Google and Partners run the risk of chasing Apple into a future wild goose chase.

    But judging by Apple's success in their free first year in tablets at least, it seems a wise decision for them to try and copy Apple's tablet success as soon as possible.

    • dchu220

      You can make a great living copying Apple.

    • davel

      this is true.

      however they are still behind. one year later they still have not cloned it.

      we shall see. the OS needs to come out and the hardware needs to ship. apple will lose share.

      will the ipad2 be better hardware than its competitors? will the ipad still be the low price leader?

      • asymco

        When you have 100% share it's hard not to lose share when competitors ship products.

        On the price however, a hint may lie in the pricing of alternative 7" products which had no discount to the iPad. What competitors are counting on is distribution through operators who will discount the product with subsidies. Note the asymmetry with Apple. Apple is consciously keeping the product free of that channel and all its illusions and distortions.

      • http://twitter.com/judsontwit @judsontwit

        What if Americans prefer the illusion?

        Serious question. I actually tried talking about subsidies and contracts for our cell phone plans with my family the other day, and it shocked me that my father really thought he bought his phone for $199. I consider my father more intelligent than myself.

        I'm not sure it's easy to grasp the ambiguity about the subsidy/contract model. Yes, you get a contract, but most people hear "Pay $199 up front and we'll give you the phone on contract." They hear give, they hear possession, they think bought.

        They don't think "lease". The vocabulary is insidiously clever.

      • gslusher

        "They don't think "lease"."

        That may be because it's not a lease. With a lease, one has to give the item back at the end of te lease. One actually owns the phone.

      • http://twitter.com/judsontwit @judsontwit

        Maybe "down payment."

      • davel

        hence why sales is so magical. they here 199 and dont think 200.

      • unhinged

        Well, when I look at it I think "I need a mobile phone, and the monthly contract is $xx and I'll be paying that fee no matter what." The monthly contract becomes a sunk cost and is no longer relevant for the purposes of deciding which handset to use. Therefore, the handset costs whatever the upfront charge is.

      • http://twitter.com/aegisdesign @aegisdesign

        That seems to be a unique problem with the US carriers.

        In much of Europe a phone may cost say £50 and come with a contract that costs £25 a month or you could buy the phone outright at £200 and get a contract that costs £15. Subsidies really are subsidies and you have the option to pay up front or not.

      • asymco

        I've sometimes said that the iPhone is a data plan wrapped in shiny glass and beautifully finished aluminum.

        The iPad and iPod are not.

        This is conscious positioning given the channel and product purpose.

      • davel

        Other than size and the phone aspect what is different about the iPhone and the iPad?

        I think the size is a big deal. It changes how you interact with it. but you are saying something more.

      • davel

        yes.

        i agree. apple is bound to lose share because they have all of it. i was stating the obvious.

        i was surprised that no one was able to beat apple's price. i am wondering if the same will be true this year. i suspect so.

        if so and if apple is able to stay even or ahead on hardware i see little to stop their momentum

      • dchu220

        Tim Cook said on the conference call that Apple invests in certain components that they think will be price sensitive in the future. The best example is Flash Memory. They will Pre-pay, do bulk orders and help finance equipment to get the best prices on those components.

        Out in Asia, it is well known that Apple has locked down the supply of a lot of the best components.

  • O.C.

    Whereas the smartphone rolled more devices into one single device. the tablet is actually doing the opposite. You are taking a laptop and removing the screen with some add ons. You could have just as easily added, flash memory better longer battery life, touchscreen tablet features to a light weight laptop.

    • davel

      yes.

      however it is more like a big iphone without the phone.

      jobs was right in saying that the size opens up possibilities that the phone does not have. the effects are subtle. the phone is claustrophobic.

      u r right in that it is essentially a laptop in a different form factor, but a smart phone is a mobile computer that you can make calls with.

      • O.C.

        You have laptops than can rotate the screen to flip it on its back so you can hold it like a tablet.
        So if you can have all the tablet en laptop features into one device, why would one buy a tablet?

      • cjackson

        I once saw a "tablet" like that. Although they sound great in theory, the problem that the old Windows tablets suffered from was that you were still fundamentally dealing with a mouse-based OS without the benefit of having a mouse. Those tablets tried to get around the problem with a stylus, but styluses suck.

        You could make the argument that with new modern touch-based OSes this is now a possibility. That may be; I think there are some coming out like this so we'll see how consumers react.

      • davel

        yes the finger interface is so much more natural.

        sometimes on my laptop i drag the screen and forget which one i am on,

      • Steven Noyes

        Ease of use. Simplicity. Transportability.

    • arjun_

      Heard of the MacBook Air?

      • O.C.

        You can't turn the screen on its back to make it into a tablet. So not quite the tablet features I was talking about.

      • arjun_

        You said
        "You could have just as easily added, flash memory better longer battery life, touchscreen tablet features to a light weight laptop."

        Other than the touchscreen feature, MacBook Air fits that description. Touchscreens need OSs designed specifically for them so a touchscreen laptop/tablet combo is always going to fail (see Windows tablets). So far only mobile OSs have been developed to be fit for touch input.

  • asymco

    The initial response from Google's CEO to the iPad is here:

    Eric Schmidt initial opinion of the iPad?… he couldn't quite resist a lateral jab: "You might want to tell me the difference between a large phone and a tablet." Beam.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/

    • unhinged

      Obviously, telling him was never going to result in him understanding…

    • dchu220

      One day every CEO will have the option to change their name to erase their electronic history.

      How many people caught the reference?

  • O.C.

    And a tablet needs hands and sometimes a lap. Your point being?

    • http://twitter.com/judsontwit @judsontwit

      The tablet is more flexible? Seems like an obvious point to me.

    • asymco

      The point is that to use a traditional keyboard device, it needs to rest on something while you use it. It's possible to use with one hand while holding it with the other but not very comfortably and nobody I know spends more than a few seconds doing that. The iPad can be used without a place where it needs to be rested. iPad offers large screen usage in non-consuming contexts: places where a keyboard/screen device is simply not comfortable to use. It also allows people to hand it to one another, not something that is done with laptops with any degree of comfort or confidence.

  • cjackson

    If you want a chuckle, check out that iPad Deathwatch link from the old asymco article again, it's still being updated with reasons why the iPad is a failure: http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/ipad/ipaddeathwatc

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  • ljp

    Many of the analysts predicted big iPhone numbers last year for the quarter and the total came in lower. Since then they've seemed to be willing to aim low and everyone cheers when the number comes in higher. But that's also due to Apple's absurd guidance and I believe their move into new markets where they again build channel inventory(iPhone jumped up another five hundred thousand units) really throws off the consensus.

    Without accurate guidance from Apple the analysts are really showing that they don't know sectors as much as they would like to claim. Perhaps it's time more people follow the lead of Warren Buffett and dismiss their analysis and influence on the market?

    • Ian Ollmann

      Buffet can afford to do his own analysis, geared towards his own goals and strategy.

      Analysts have their place. It is unreasonable to expect them to be right all the time. Buffet is not right all the time.

  • famousringo

    The manufacturers call them 'portables' nowadays. Only customers still call them laptops. That's because they're no longer designed to be used on a lap. A lot of them risk overheating if you do!

    Hm, does that sound like somebody might be overshooting what the market can absorb? ;-)

  • Jackifus

    @OC

    I’d say the iPad (not other tablets) is useful by people who aren’t computer users. That ease of use is a radical difference.

    I bought an iPad for my venerable, technophobe father in law. He loves it- and now we are in contact via email. He lives in a different continent. I know his machine will work without administration.

    Have you seen the video of the hundred year old lady using an iPad? It speaks to a broadening of the market.

    A half tablet/ half notebook form factor certainly could be useful by me… But wouldn’t be used by the broad market being opened by the simplicity of the iPad.

    • davel

      i have been using computers for a very long time. at work and at home.

      i prefer my ipad.

    • dchu220

      I've been waiting for the front facing camera + FaceTime over 3G. As soon as that happens, I'm getting one for my Grandma. It's painful to watch her make phone calls. She often has to dial 3+ times just to talk to one person.

    • http://twitter.com/diskgrinder @diskgrinder

      spot on. Bought an iPad for dad (68) and expected tech support calls from baby boomer hell. No, he sends me app gifts (mostly golf apps)

  • Tatil

    AT&T or Verizon does not offer you a discount on monthly fees if you do not buy a subsidized phone. You either pay more now for the flexibility of a contract that you can cancel any time or you pay less now and pay a fee later if you need to cancel.

    Don't worry, your father is still more intelligent than you. :)

    • http://twitter.com/judsontwit @judsontwit

      Right, the second part – there's no way to reason, from the prices alone, that the unsubsidized option is actually better. You're still on a contract that you can cancel – the difference is whether you pay your $599 all up front, or $199 now and $300 later if you quit early.

      Hence my question of whether subsidized phones are a price "illusion", or a more flexible option that Americans will continue to favor in the future.

      • dchu220

        Americans seem to like the subsidized model. Google and Apple both tried to fight it early on and gave up. I think part of it has to do with the fact that there aren't as many options in the US as there are in other countries. Out here in Taiwan, there a bunch of mobile telecom operators for a small island with 25 million people.

        I think that's why in the US people pick their operator first and then their phone. As long as different carriers have different 'dead spots', I think it will stay that way.

  • http://levypsychiatry.com calebcar

    So why are Munster and Huberty always quoted in the press and allowed to ask questions at each earnings conference. The Deagol index usually has them toward the bottom of the pile in earnings prediction accuracy.
    What standing do they have?

  • master_blaster

    Apple really needs to start flogging their new iPad or else they'll never be able to compete with Asus in the netbook market.

    • unhinged

      Forgive me, I cannot tell if this is sarcasm or not.

      • asymco

        I believe the comment refers to the news that Asus just declared that they will exit the netbook market. (or at least I read a headline to that effect, please confirm).

    • http://twitter.com/dougpasnak @dougpasnak

      Funny.

    • http://franksting.net.au Gavin Costello

      Either ironic humour of obvious trolling. I'm too vinified to be able to tell ;)

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  • Kristian

    Horace… you have to up it to $1000 ;) There is nothing that can stop Apple now. The team inside the Apple is so FANTASTIC. They know what they are doing.

    “We are firing on all cylinders"
    "- Steve Jobs was talking about the new Apple W16 that will take the New Bugatti AAPL Veyron beyond the Mach 3" ;)

    Though I own you a beer. My prediction of the $30B did not happen (few billion short.. damn it). Then again it will happen this quarter. I am two months ahead and that is totally because of that, that the summertime messes my inner clock :(

    Somebody should BTW do something to that Toni Saggonachi. He does not get it at all. Apple completely owns so many industries that the idiot( =Toni) does not understand where the honey bot is. It would be idiotic for Apple to give away the steering wheel to somebody like Toni.

    • dchu220

      Toni isn't an idiot. He's just from the finance industry where everyone always thinks they can do a better job of investing money than everyone else and where marginal returns rules every decision. It's the same way Apple fans look at Google's business model and scratch their heads and vice versa.

      • Kristian

        You just sayid the same thing that.. HE is an ahole and does not know anything about anything. Apple has kept it's money at the same time when the STFU Tony has lost everything. During this financial catastrophy Apple made money with their investments. Not much, but they did make money out of it. If you are a ******* from a Investment Bank that looses all of it's money so that US Goverment have to keep you alive… Do I have to continue this?? Seriously?? There is 3 things that I will always trust. Apple, Bank of Apple and Apple Legal. Toni Saggonachi with his multibillion dollar loosing investment bank is seriously not there.

      • dchu220

        I've read his stuff and I totally don't agree with him, but that's just a difference of opinion. I wouldn't go so far as to question his intelligence. Different jobs have different mental models. Its why some people are great engineers and some people are great artists and very very few a both.

    • davel

      I agree Toni doesn't understand Apple. He has gone from an Apple bear to an Apple bull because he was wrong so many times.

  • Elise

    Open question to all…. How do you see Apple trading in the next few days or week or two? I bought in at $340 for the first time (I'm a new investor) and should have sold after the earnings report, but held. Now I'm concerned because of the market's performance today. Some are calling for it to dip. I am considering selling and then buying back in when market calms down.

    • Kristian

      AAPL will fly nicely over the $1000 and within two years. Tim Cook and Co will crunch it and Steve will lead the Symphony ;)

      I bought AAPL when the Steve came back. That $50 000 makes my old days very smooth.

    • Thomas65807

      The time to sell is if the company's future earnings prospects are declining or the share price is too high for the current outlook.

      Don't sell a great company selling at a low price simply because of short-term declines in share price. Instead, those represent *buying opportunities.*

      If you want to become a better investor, a good and easy way to start is by watching Jim Cramer's show, "Mad Money" on CNBC each evening at 6 and 11 (EST). Also, you can download the shows free at Apple's iTunes Store and watch them at your convenience. The first 15 minutes of the show are the best.

    • davel

      Apple just had a blowout 1Q.

      I recently saw an analyst defending his 400 price point.

      What the stock will do in the next few days or weeks? I don't know. I am not a soothsayer.

  • dchu220

    A lot of commenters on both ends (both pro-Google and pro-Apple) often used the term, "you don't get it.". I've been thinking that this is the result of talking to someone whom the product is not 'targeted' at.

    As an iOS user, I have a hard time understanding why people want to use Android. But that's because I value different things. Both my parents were HP engineers and they have a hard time understanding why I like Apple products. My mom was even kinda pissed off at me.

    I'm saying this because I think it's interesting to hear other sides of the story and to understand why people think the way they do. For example, I really enjoyed reading ExGoogler's post. Although I disagree with some of his assertions, I felt I got smarter from reading them.

    • Kristian

      There is several stages of this thing…

      At first you don't understand why on earth people buys Apple hardware and software…
      Then somebody says to you that you have to buy it and you do…

      It takes one week when you are "confused" with the machine..
      It takes one week when you start blaming yourself that why did you not do it before..
      It takes another week that you start telling to your friends that they have to make the switch..

      • dchu220

        The first Apple product that got me hooked was the iPhone 3GS. I had a ton of iPods before and although I liked it, I never tried any other products out. Three weeks after getting the iPhone I bought a MacBook Pro. A couple months after that I pre-ordered that iPad.

        I don't know how to explain to people why I converted so fast. It just 'felt' right to me. I'm sure I'm not alone.

  • JakeLeg

    "Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010"
    iPad launched in April 2010.

    That's 14 million in 9 months.

  • Kristian

    Where is the Toni Saggonachi???

  • dchu220

    Here's a link to Charlie Munger talking about how he and Warren Buffet make investment decisions. http://www.paladinvest.com/pifiles/MungersWorldly

    Key Concepts
    – Management has a value that sometimes isn't reflected in stock prices
    – Mental Models help you make decisions faster (Lists a couple he likes)
    – The human brain isn't built to be logical

  • AlfieJr

    well my iPad guess last year was 11 million – 1 million a month plus 2 million for Xmas. this year i am guessing double that. so 2 million a month plus 4 million for Xmas. total 28 million.

    what's your guess?

  • nangka777

    “It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.’”
    Bill Gates, Microsoft, 10 February 2010

    maybe now the 14.8 million units sold would change his mind?

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  • Alastair

    I think one factor that suggested the Tablet was going to be a hit is that every other consumer electronics company seemed to be waiting for the iPad to be released before they introduced anything more into the market.

    The was a space of about a year where the only rumours on tablets were about Apple or this-or-that Corp wasn't going to release anything until they saw what Apple had (they probably knew some of the part list already from their contacts with suppliers). They were also waiting to see what the price was going to be, which seemed to surprise most analysts too, with double the price being a common guess, I mean professional estimate.

    • dchu220

      Thanks for bringing this up. I forgot about that.

      I don't think it was a good indicator of the Tablet's success. Remember that MS had a tablet out for a long time before. I think it's a good indicator of how much respect the industry gives Apple. You had guys like JooJoo racing to get a tablet out before Apple. (~40 units sold)

      It's also a good indicator on how little info the CE industry had on what Apple was up to. They chose to wait to see how high the bar was being set before trying to enter the market themselves. Unfortunately, they forgot that Apple likes to set the bar really high.

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  • http://twitter.com/diskgrinder @diskgrinder

    analcysts predict doom because they hate verticals: it doesn't jibe with their communist ideals for tractor factories leeched by cockroaches parasiting a monopolist hegemony

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  • Dan

    Gartner predicts apple will reach 130 million iOS units annually…by 2014. What are they smoking?
    Analysts predict 50-75 million iphones in 2011. I think closer to 100million. That doesn't include ipad.
    So apple might hit more than 130 million by THIS YEAR.

    Gartner also predicted ~250 million android devices by 2014. I'd say apple alone will exceed that number annually by 2013. Apple's touch technology and lead in apps is going to be disruptive. Global cellular sales alone number 400-600 million per QUARTER. The marketplace is huge and people are tired of shitty software/firmware on cheap devices, and Apple's the only one delivering a solid solution.

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  • http://www.educationrequirements.org/jobs/analyst-education-requirements Analyst Educ

    GREAT ADVICE! I have been in my career field for many years and never read advice as good as yours about the opening line …Thanks a million!@BOSE

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