Professional analysts’ first year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)
- Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
- David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
- Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
- Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
- Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
- Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
- Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
- Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
- Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
- Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
- Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
- Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
- Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
- Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1
Here are the predictions from Tech Bloggers:
- Clayton Morris: 9
- John Gruber: 8
- Horace Dediu: 6
- Natali Del Conte: 5
- Ross Rubin: 5
- Mike Rose: 4.5-5
- Jason Snell: 3
- Andy Ihnatko: 3
Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010.
I sometimes use the phrase “unforeseeable growth” to describe the kind of growth that not even the most knowledgeable observers of a market can predict. It’s usually an indicator that fundamentally transformational change is taking place.
It’s not a sufficient condition, but it’s clear that “nobody saw it coming” is a common refrain when disruptions are seen in the rear-view mirror.
If analysts, to a man, fail, you can be sure that competitors are no wiser. This collective shrug amounts to the greatest competitive advantage any entrant could ever hope to obtain.