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Day January 28, 2011

Stephen Elop's ecosystem messages

Yesterday I made my predictions on Nokia’s new platform strategy. They should  be treated as pure guesswork, but they are informed guesses. I based them on public information.

That information comes in the form of statements from Nokia’s CEO at the earnings call. I made a table of all the statements that dealt with platform decisions and my interpretations of those statements.

You may do your own interpretation, but to me there is significant evidence here to support my predictions.

Summary view of Apple's income statement [Updated]

Since reporting on the 18th, I’ve mostly finished going over the the fourth quarter Apple data. Here is a quick summary of the articles that covered the financial and product performance:

Subject Article
Cash Having added $20 billion last year, Apple’s cash growth suggests total could top $100 billion next year
Growth Apple’s Growth Scorecard: 63% average earnings growth over 16 quarters
iPhone pricing The end of exclusivity doesn’t change the price operators pay for the iPhone
Sales by product 65% of Apple’s sales came from iOS powered devices
Next quarter’s estimates Estimates for Apple’s second quarter earnings (ending March)
Share price/valuation Is Apple a candidate for acquisition?
Margins and platform mix of profit iOS enables 71% of Apple’s profits. Platform products power 93% of gross margin
Cannibalization iPhone and iPad: Fine Young Cannibals?
Operational Expenses $76 billion a year from a tableful of products

That leaves one more: Summary view of cash flows.

Samsung was the fastest growing major smartphone vendor

The smartphone market grew 73% in Q4. Here are the growth rates for vendors which regularly report smartphone sales:

  • HTC: 142%
  • Motorola: 96%
  • Apple: 86%
  • RIM: 40.5% (period ending November)
  • Nokia: 36%

Mobile phone vendor share update. Biggest winner: Other

Biggest share winner: Other.

The trend toward ZTE, Huawei and others taking volume share from the traditional incumbents continues. Smartphones continue to capture value share. Dedicated smartphone vendors HTC, RIM and Apple would make up the third biggest single vendor, starting from a very small base.

Looking over this three and a half year period, the change in the market is quite dramatic.