Apple’s CFO guidance statement:
We expect revenue to be about $23 billion compared to $15.7 billion in the June quarter last year. We expect gross margin to be about 38%, reflecting approximately $55 million related to stock-based compensation expense. We expect OpEx to be about $2.5 billion, including about $255 million related to stock-based compensation expense. We expect OI&E to be about $70 million and we expect the tax rate to be about 25%. We are targeting EPS of about $5.03.
Last quarter Apple guided revenue growth at an aggressive 63% with an EPS growth of 47%. They delivered 83% and 93% respectively.
They are now guiding about 47% revenue growth and 43% EPS growth and my current estimates are 65% and 72% respectively based on the following:
- iPhone units: 14.7 million (75%)
- Macs: 4.3 million (25%)
- iPads: 9.8 million (200%)
- iPods: 8.0 million (-15%)
- Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 25%
- Peripherals rev. growth: 25%
- Software rev. growth: 25%
- Total sales: $25.8 billion (65%)
- GM: 38.5%
- EPS: $6.02 (72%)
The biggest uncertainty remains iPad growth. This will be the first quarter where we can dial in a y/y growth rate. I’m being bullish with 200% because I believe the ramp for the iPad 2 may get sorted out. There are also more countries being opened up this quarter (13 this week).
Apple’s stock price to earnings ratio has dropped to 16.72. Ex-cash it’s 13.5. On a forward basis (my estimates) it’s 8.3. Apple’s valuation is now a case for business historians to discuss because I don’t think there are modern precedents.