I’m late with posting my estimates for Apple’s current (fourth fiscal) quarter. Normally I post my estimates a few days after the previous quarter’s earnings are announced. This quarter however there was a lot to think about.
As pointed out in my analysis of the previous quarter, the iPhone sold at a far faster rate than I thought. I had expected it would be a “lame duck” in the quarter but the expanding distribution allowed it to continue at a triple-digit growth rate (142% in fact, the highest quarterly growth rate since 2009).
So the question for this quarter is, as always, what’s the iPhone growth? The problem for me is that I have to choose between two assumptions:
- Due to distribution and dual product strategy (n-1 variant) production has now become more consistent.
- This quarter is the actual transition quarter when iPhone 4 production is throttled down in favor of the new model.
The first assumption would put the iPhone growth at 100%+ while the second would place it in the 60% to 80% range. I decided to dial in a figure somewhere in between at 90% but I’m not very confident in this until we see more evidence that a new pattern has emerged.
So here are my “mid” quarter forecasts: