I’m late with posting my estimates for Apple’s current (fourth fiscal) quarter. Normally I post my estimates a few days after the previous quarter’s earnings are announced. This quarter however there was a lot to think about.
As pointed out in my analysis of the previous quarter, the iPhone sold at a far faster rate than I thought. I had expected it would be a “lame duck” in the quarter but the expanding distribution allowed it to continue at a triple-digit growth rate (142% in fact, the highest quarterly growth rate since 2009).
So the question for this quarter is, as always, what’s the iPhone growth? The problem for me is that I have to choose between two assumptions:
- Due to distribution and dual product strategy (n-1 variant) production has now become more consistent.
- This quarter is the actual transition quarter when iPhone 4 production is throttled down in favor of the new model.
The first assumption would put the iPhone growth at 100%+ while the second would place it in the 60% to 80% range. I decided to dial in a figure somewhere in between at 90% but I’m not very confident in this until we see more evidence that a new pattern has emerged.
So here are my “mid” quarter forecasts:
- iPhone units: 26.8 million (90%)
- Macs: 4.8 million (23%)
- iPads: 10.5 million (150%)
- iPods: 7.0 million (-22%)
- Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 30%
- Peripherals rev. growth: 23%
- Software rev. growth: 32%
- Total revenues: $33.2 billion (growth: 63%)
- GM: 41.8%
- EPS: $9.05 (95%)
Three years ago the company’s share price was trading at a P/E ratio of about 35. The above estimate and today’s price implies that’s it’s trading at the same multiple but the Earnings is measured over one quarter not one year.
As @Patricklgoe noted on Twitter: the post-PC era for Apple means it’s the post-P/E era as well.