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Day October 11, 2011

How many iPhones will be upgraded next year?

Last week I proposed that there were two significant markets for the new iPhone: 1) the existing iPhone user base 2) smartphone “non-consumers”. Today I want to dig a bit deeper into the first market to get an idea of what it amounts to.

The following chart shows the total iPhone shipments over time with an estimate for the mix of models during the last two years.

The way I calibrated the mix is by taking into account the statement that Tim Cook made

Introducing The Syndicate: a new opportunity to sponsor Asymco.com

Since I started Asymco, I vowed to avoid clutter, noise and distractions for readers so that they may reward me with attention. I did not want to waste your time because I trusted I’d receive better feedback in exchange. So far this has been a successful policy. Over five million views, and 21,000 thoughtful comments are evidence that respect for an online audience is reciprocated.

To that end, I’ve avoided advertising designed to take attention away from the content. I am not opposed to advertising in general, I just don’t want to orient the site around it. We’ve all observed how that business model works out. I also don’t want to orient my time around obtaining sponsorships.

I believe that advertising should add value to the site. You should find something relevant in the ads and they should lead to discovering products or services that could be hired for jobs you have to do. It also helps me devote time to this project without too much sacrifice.

So it’s with a lot of relief and gratitude that I welcome a new sponsorship organization called The Syndicate which shares my priorities. I’ve agreed that The Syndicate should place appropriate advertising on this site.

The Syndicate is a new ad network of select web writers. Initially, advertisers have the opportunity to sponsor nine sites, including Marco.org the site of Marco Arment, creator of Instapaper; Subtraction.com, the site of Khoi Vinh the designer of the theme I use (Basic Maths) and ShawnBlanc.net a tech- and design-centric website. Together we attract more than 92,000 supremely intelligent daily readers and over 1.3 million views per month.

Consistent with the goals of this site, The Syndicate values the readers’ attention and will offer only quality ads that readers might find useful.

If you are interested in promoting your product, service, or company, visit The Syndicate and place your order. One sponsorship week remains in 2011 at a special introductory rate.