November 2011
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Month November 2011

Entries 5 Total

Interactive charts for Apple’s product lines

Nov 30, ’11 7:01 PM

Warning: This requires Flash.

This is a data set that shows Apple’s product-level performance according to Units sold, Average Selling Prices, Cost of Sales, Gross Margin, Unit Growth, Revenues, Revenue Growth and Gross Margin contribution. It, along with all the other data sets are available under the Products menu at the top of this page.

Default settings:

  • Line Chart
  • Y-Axis set to Revenues.
  • Color set to GM (Gross Margin percent).
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Interactive Smartphone Platforms Data

Nov 30, ’11 3:07 PM

Warning: This requires Flash.

Try the following settings:

  • Bar Chart
  • Set X-axis (Order) to Alphabetical.
  • Set Y-Axis to Share of all Phones.
  • Set Color: Unique colors.
  • Press Play or use scroll bar to scrub through time.
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Visualizing Mobile Phone Vendor Performance Through Motion Charts

Nov 30, ’11 1:49 PM

Warning: This requires Flash.

Try the following settings:

  • Set y-axis to Profit (units: $ Billion)
  • Set x-axis to Volumes (in Millions/quarter).
  • Set Size: Revenues in $Billion. (Scroll within gadget to see Size selector).
  • Set Color: ASP (Average Selling Price in US Dollars)
  • Press Play or use scroll bar to scrub through time.

Note the “Vendor data” tab where you can see the source data and options for different chart types (upper right of chart).

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Visualizing Global Telecom Markets

Nov 29, ’11 9:47 PM

Warning: This requires Flash.

Try the following settings:

  • Set y-axis to Mobile Cellular Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants
  • Set x-axis to Fixed broadband per 100.
  • Size: Inhabitants. (Scroll within gadget to see Size selector).
  • Hit play.
  • Discuss
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How many iOS devices will be sold in 2012?

Nov 28, ’11 2:51 PM

There are several methods I turn to when estimating device sales.

Top-Down Demand analysis

The first is to look at so-called top-down views of the demand. This method takes a view of the overall phone market and assumes share for smart devices and, further, shares for individual platforms. There are several estimates out there. The most recent is Ericsson’s Traffic and Market Data Report, released November 7 2011.

It concludes that in five years’ time mobile subscriptions will reach 8.4 billion of which smart devices (incl. tablets) will total 6.2 billion. As iOS has approximately a 250 million install base at end of 2011 and as the total base from Ericsson’s estimate for 2011 is 1.44 billion then Apple’s share is approximately 17%. If we assume that Apple will be able to increase smart device share to 20% (3 percentage points in five years) then by 2016 Apple will need to have 1.24 billion iOS subscribers.

Assuming that half the installed base upgrades every year and Apple adds devices required to reach the install base necessary (1.24b or 20% share) leads to the following unit sales projection (I’ve added 2008 through 2010 actuals and 2011 estimates based on my own current Q4 projections).

 

This Approach yields an estimate of

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