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Day January 6, 2012

Predictions for 2012

I have none to offer.

It may sound strange to hear me say that I don’t make predictions even though I often talk about how things will change and even provide some forecasts. The difference is one of degrees. A prediction to me is a very specific, time-sensitive and materially valuable recommendation. An observation about the future is an imprecise, intuitive hunch based on pattern recognition. It’s mushy. It’s theoretical. It’s the difference between saying a company is great and recommending to buy its stock with a price target in a time frame.

But it gets even weirder.