February 2012
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Month February 2012

Entries 5 Total

On principles of good analysis

Feb 29, ’12 6:44 PM
The most challenging part is how you’re going to tell a story with just images and no words.
Words are very efficient but my belief is that to say the important things you don’t use words.
Knowing that when you do your visuals you have to be very careful with every thing that is in the frame.
Because every thing tells a story.
And sometimes you have just a small detail, but it looks too important. So you have to put it outside the frame because it tells another story.
With apologies to Michel Hazanavicius, director, The Artist
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When will Android reach one billion users?

Feb 29, ’12 3:59 PM

The latest data from Google shows that the Android activation rate is increasing at a relatively steady rate (i.e. acceleration is constant). The data provided so far is in the blue circles below. The green line is the interpolation and extrapolation of that data.

As the graph is projected forward we get an activation rate of one million per day by mid August of this year. If it continues then we could see 1.5 million per day by end of 2013.

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The value of the OS X monopoly

Feb 28, ’12 3:38 PM

In January I noted that there were more iPads sold by Apple than PCs from HP, the largest PC vendor in the fourth quarter. Including all tablets, this is the distribution of market shares by units shipped.

Note the different color palettes for Windows and non-Windows.

By the metric of tablets+PC’s Apple appears to be the leading vendor. However, if we consider only the Mac, Apple is still well behind. The historic unit volumes of the two is shown below:

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iPhone sine qua non

Feb 26, ’12 7:25 PM

Last week I made an attempt to measure the iPhone’s manufacturing cost given new data points from the Foxconn field trip. The post generated a great amount of new knowledge and the feedback was very valuable.

The main value to me came from stepping back and looking at the entire cost and value structure for the iPhone. Putting costs into perspective is as valuable as knowing what they are.

The following diagram shows my estimates for this cost structure for the fourth quarter given both bill of materials estimates and the other parts of the cost of goods sold and operational expenses and even ancillary sources of revenue.

Source for BOM estimate: iSupply.

There are several observations easily made from this view:

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A three year view of Apple’s fourth quarter

Feb 24, ’12 12:12 PM

This is a summary view of Apple’s income statement for the fourth quarter of 2009, 2010 and 2011. The full size is 999×893 pixels. Click on image below for full size bitmap.

 

The convention used is to show revenues in the first column, cost of sales in the second followed by operating expenses, taxes and net income in the last (dark green) column.

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