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Day March 2, 2012

5BY5 | The Critical Path #27: Supernova

What will iPads grow up to be?

We talk about how measurements of the market show an unprecedented growth in mobile computing and how that leads to a new context for computing along axes of non-consumption. That could result in devices becoming powerful enough to allow most people to be creative and reach self-realization.

5BY5 | The Critical Path #27: Supernova.

When will tablets outsell traditional PCs?

I truly believe, and many others in the company believe, that there will come a day that the tablet market in units is larger than the PC market.

Tim Cook Discusses Q1 2012 Results – Earnings Call Transcript – Seeking Alpha

Question is when?

I began by projecting growth rates of various market participants including the leading Windows PC makers (HP, Acer, Dell, Lenovo and Asus), the combined “others” and the Mac. I also added the iPad, Samsung’s tablets, other Google sanctioned Android tablets and Amazon. I also projected a split between traditional and tablet Windows shipments.

The underlying assumptions are:

  1. Mac growth continues at 25% as it has on average for a few years
  2. Windows grows slightly in 2012 with the introduction of Windows 8 late in the year. However I anticipate Windows 8, including tablet versions, to mostly be upgrades with slow enterprise take-up within this time frame.
  3. The tablet versions of Windows begin shipping in Q4 2012 with 7% of total Windows shipped. The ratio reaches 20% by end of 2013.
  4. iPad growth will flatten for ’12 and ’13 at 100%, similar to iPhone’s historic performance.
  5. Android tablet growth will be significant in the current year and follow iPad growth pattern though settling at 80% during ’13.
  6. Amazon growth will be approximately 80%.

Building the platforms combined growth bottom-up gives the following forecast for the next two years (and historic growth shown for perspective.)