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5by5 | The Critical Path #35: Joys and Sorrows

A review of Apple’s performance in the first calendar quarter. Covering the iPhone’s predictability, greater China and international opportunity swamping the US opportunity, the iPad surprise and what mobile means to Apple. Dan and Horace ponder what it means for the largest company in the world to also be the fastest growing company in the world. We discuss whether there is a mobile bubble and, as a bonus, Horace predicts the launch timing of the next iPhone.

via 5by5 | The Critical Path #35: Joys and Sorrows.

Covered a lot of ground. Be sure to rate the show on iTunes.

  • SamLowry

    Hi Horace,

    I need to point out that you talked nonsense in one point: If you count Apple MacBooks as mobile devices to point out that Apple is a 98% mobile company, you have to do that for PC laptops, too, so Microsoft is a 50% (or whatever) mobile company, not 0%.

    (shit happens…)

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      Selling products designed to be mobile and selling software that is used incidentally by products that are mobile does not make the two business models equivalent. My point stands: Apple derives nearly all its revenues from products designed to function as mobile computers. Microsoft and Google derive negligible value from products designed to function on mobile computers.

      • SamLowry

        50% (or whatever) of Windows 7 or even Vista sales go into laptops. Whether W7 was designed for that or not, 50% of sales go into mobile devices (as you defined them by counting MacBooks).

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        Apple sold over 50 million iOS devices last quarter. I estimate 50.8 million. The number of portable Macs was 2.8 million and desktops was 1.2 million. The total OS-based unit count was therefore 54.8 million. With portable Macs, the mobile percent is 97.8%. Without portable Macs the mobile percent is 92.7%.

      • SamLowry

        … and these 92.7% are to be compared with about 0% for MS. That is a correct and important comparison, and I appreciate that you pointed that out. 

      • Vamsi

         and so, you point being… ???

      • SamLowry

        apple 92.7%, MS 0% : correct, no laptops
        apple 97.8%, MS 50% : correct, incl. laptops
        apple 97.8%, MS 0% : mixed, hence invalidpoint being, a wrong comparison is a wrong comparison. what’s yours?

  • charlie h

    I’m not sure I’m understanding you correctly. Microsoft doesn’t sell laptops. Maybe you can say that Microsoft does have products out for mobile (Windows Tablet OS, Windows Mobile, Windows Phone 7, etc..) and that makes Microsoft not a 0% mobile company.

  • MW

    Horace

    Do you have any idea on when this will not be true anymore? When osx + iOs will be bigger than Windows?

    http://blogs.msdn.com/b/b8/archive/2012/02/09/building-windows-for-the-arm-processor-architecture.aspx
    and supported as part of the largest computing ecosystem in the world.