Yesterday I presented the estimated Android income statement vis-à-vis Apple’s income statement. In this post I’ll compare Android as a part of Google’s overall business.
Recall that Google has already been compared in terms of overall revenue, growth and profitability to Apple and Microsoft here. The argument can be made that mobility has not yet had a measurable impact on Google (certainly not noteworthy enough to be reported by management).
The impact on Google of Android can be shown in the following diagram:
I used color coding to identify non-Android (Green) and Android (Brown) segments of the business. Overall, Android could amount to about 3.5% of total Google revenues and about 5% of operating earnings.
One week into this project and the response has been phenomenal. We are at nearly 500% funded. There are 414 backers so far and the average pledge is nearly $34. This means that the vast majority of people (328 so far) opted for the $35 pledge. Many pledged even more than $35.
Perhaps it’s only symbolic but the interest in the hard copy version was something I did not expect. It’s gratifying that people would prefer to have a physical representation of the work. It also means that I have to think carefully about the production of a good quality paper book.
The abundance of support allows me to invest in design, editing and perhaps illustration as well as the text. I will also have to do a lot of signing.
Thanks again to all who have contributed. I’m completely humbled by the level of support and can only promise to keep doing that which has been so resolutely defended by you all.
via The Critical Path: The First Year by Horace Dediu » What I’ve learned so far — Kickstarter.
Data is useful only when put in perspective. Yesterday’s post on the Android Income Statement showed how sales and revenues are captured and how costs are paid for that revenue. The data was shown for the entire calendar year 2011 and the maximum value in the vertical axis was $1.5 billion.
Google has also reported that their revenue “run rate” is now in excess of $2.5 billion so there is significant growth, as would be expected from an exponentially increasing user base.
However, it’s important to place this growth in perspective, both in absolute and in relative terms.
Below is a diagram showing Apple’s revenues for the first calendar quarters of 2010, 2011 and 2012. Each product group (iPhone, Mac, iPad and iPod) is shown separately with estimated gross margins (GM). Operational costs, taxes and net income are also shown.
Consistent with previous versions of this data are the color schemes where white areas represent costs of goods sold.
I also placed a scaled version of the Android Income statement next to the first quarter 2011 revenue bar for Apple. The scale is maintained where $1 billion is represented by the double-ended arrow line.
This is a continuation of the “Android Economics” series of posts. It deals with how revenues and costs are categorized for Android.
The following diagram shows an approximate representation of what Android’s “Income Statement” would look like.
I’ll discuss the assumptions that are built into the model as I go along. I’ll begin at the upper left and move toward the lower right in the discussion.
Android has had unprecedented growth. Based on activation announcements, it’s possible to estimate that thus far, about 370 million Android devices have been activated. The total number of devices in use is a lower figure which depends on replacement rate and retirement rate. This total number of devices in use at year end is estimated in the following chart.
I added the blue line which represents what Google had as an internal estimate in mid-2010. The difference between the two lines shows that Android’s growth is far higher than what the company expected. If the company itself did not expect this growth, it’s unlikely anybody else did either.
Unexpected, exponential user growth is usually accompanied by a dramatic positive improvement in the finances of a company and a higher return to shareholders. The curious aspect of Android’s success is that it has not had an impact on either. The market has not “discounted” the half-billion anticipated Android users into a price for Google shares that reflects this growth. It can only imply that those users are not very valuable.
But why would there be such a disconnect between the number of users and their value?