Categories

5by5 | The Critical Path #46: The Next Victim

We cover the valuation question regarding Apple and tech in general as seen through investors’ eyes. This discussion ranges a bit on P/E compression and the psychology of investors–which might change with Apple TV.

We also look at who is most vulnerable in the ongoing mobile computing disruption and who are the up-and-coming challengers. Finally, I introduce the Perspective app which I used for all my live presentations.

I’ll post more about Perspective in the future as it will be my platform for publishing complex or rich data.

via 5by5 | The Critical Path #46: The Next Victim.

  • Jeff G

    I downloaded the Perspective app already as soon as I saw the link in the @ASYMCO column to the right of the posts. I have not played with it yet, or bought the in app purchase.

    I remember having total nerdish presentation-envy when I watched you- Horace using the software. Am looking forward to exploring it further!

  • Dave Brandt

    I just downloaded the app and need to play with it more. This is tremendous! I’m assuming that the free app is the player — “Perspective Player”. Possibly a “Perspective Pro” version doesn’t exist yet or it is the player plus the Authoring Kit (which I didn’t look at).

    I think the fun is thinking about the jobs that we would like to “hire” Perspective Pro to do. I see it as primarily an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) tool that can save animated presentations as one type of “report.” Perspective Player plays back the Pro version’s animations but I don’t think it can do much more (which is fine).

    [The difference is that EDA of multidimensional data helps the analyst figure out what the best stories are and the animated presentations communicate the insights to the public.]

    A good animated graphic suggests subsequent questions — typically more refined/focused questions.

    Suppose the scenario is that you are presenting those motion charts of revenue/profit by vendor and time on your Cinerama screen at Asymconf. Everyone has brought their iPads and copies of Perspective Pro. They can download the dataset and can ask more refined EDA questions of the data after after seeing your presentation.

    In the build-in sample dataset, time is treated as a continuous variable from 2007 on. Suppose you treat the Apple products as a series of cumulative disruptions that occurred at discrete time points. That data would be in the database or can be derived as additional variables.

    Suppose you want to see how the smartphone universe changed in response to the 3G iPhone. How did it change in response to the iOS API and the successful creation of the 3rd party ecosystem? At the outset, the incuments were all making “old-fashioned” smartphones or dumb phones. When did some of the incumbents evolve copycat iPhones? How did the new versions of the incumbents’ phones fare in terms of profit/revenue? When are the periods of greatest change? Suppose someone wants to put profit and revenue on the same multidimensional animated plot instead of two motion charts. Its widely reported that the great majority of e-commerce is from iOS devices despite the fact that there are more android activations than iOS. When and how did that evolve?
    And so on…

    The idea is that the container for Perspective would hold the extensible database and support transformations/subsetting so that follow-up research questions could be addressed. Of course, it would have the library of built-in animated graphs so that the user could switch types of graphs and reassign variables to different features of each graph type.

    The foundation for a great EDA system!

    • Farshad Nayeri

      Dave, Thank you for the compliment about Perspective.

      Some of what you suggest is exactly how Perspective works today and your other ideas vibe well with where we are headed.

      Our ultimate goal is an ecosystem of compelling, audiovisual stories about ideas. We want not only to allow people to browse (lean back) but also explore (lean forward) and create (sleeves rolled up?)

      The job to be done is Engage by Entertaining. You are right to point out the difference in our approach with most “exploratory analyst tools”. We think more about the Audience, and less about the Analyst. Note that the Audience is likely to have more capability to “explore” in a Perspective story than any other media.

      The objective is communicating compelling stories. Motion charts just happen to be a convenient way to tell compelling stories if you’ve got lots of data.

  • niilolainen

    Can’t tell you how much I enjoy your podcasts. Keep up the good work.

  • niilolainen

    Can’t tell you how much I enjoy your podcasts. Keep up the good work.

  • Nowrunner

    I adore Critical Path.

    My favorite corollary to your ‘If a tree falls in the forest…’ homily is- if a man speaks in a forest, and there is no woman there to hear him, is he still wrong?

    Keep up the GREAT work.

  • Jesper

    I relation to the comments on the Apple TV and the role of Samsung, I found it interesting to read http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/151400/apple-reportedly-hires-former-high-level-amd-hardware-engineer. Naturally, it’s purely speculation what he will be working on, but the possibility of retaliatory action against Samsung through a move to AMD chip sets is worth considering and keeping track of.