Categories

Apple's growth scorecard for the third fiscal quarter 2012

As the following revenue growth table shows, the second calendar quarter of 2012 was not like the recent past.

The bottom line growth (earnings) is the slowest since Q309 which had a difficult comparison with Q308 when the iPhone 3G launched and saw 800% iPhone growth. This past quarter also had a difficult comparison with 150% iPhone growth a year earlier and 122% earnings growth.

This is shown in a different way in the following graph:

Growth is sometimes victim to difficult comparisons and sometimes the launch of products comes late or early in a particular cycle. This quarter was a mix of multiple factors that went the wrong way:

  1. iPhone did not get expanded distribution and was stale late in its cycle. Emerging market traction outside of China still elusive.
  2. iPad is not getting volume purchasing from institutions and spring is not an ideal launch quarter for consumers
  3. Mac portables missed a few weeks of sales due to lack of Intel components
  4. Some signs of macroeconomic slowing especially in Europe and countries dependent on commodities exports.

The silver lining is the return of higher growth to iTunes store and peripherals. These are “hobbies” for Apple but they might form a foundation for significant new opportunities in the years to come.

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

  • Philipp

    Very important regarding the performance of the iPad in my opinion: New iPad arived late in China on Friday, July 20 – http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/10New-iPad-Arrives-in-China-on-Friday-July-20.html

    • http://twitter.com/artman1033 artman1033

      I do not think that will such a big deal. The new iPad has been smuggled into mainland China in large quantities at a lower price from Hong Kong for months.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

        What counts as “large quantities”? That’s the problem with treating anecdote as data.

        A million iPads brought into China from Hong Kong may seem like a lot to Hong Kong — everyone knows someone who’s taken an iPad across the border — while at the same time being nothing but a few percent of Apple’s actual expected iPad sales in China.

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        Whereas black markets can sometimes have significant effects, it usually takes a long time. It’s unlikely that demand from black markets can be met in a few weeks. Distribution, legal or otherwise, takes time.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      Whereas black markets can sometimes have significant effects, it usually takes a long time. It’s unlikely that demand from black markets can be met in a few weeks. Distribution, legal or otherwise, takes time.

  • tedcranmore

    If new iPad mini and iPhone “5” release at the end of FQ4, we will see a big quarter and the compare is rather easy. How would the graph look with a smoothing mechanism applied as the launch dates shifting into different quarters makes the data a little lumpy?

  • http://michaelkdawson.com/ TrendRida

    My take on the Q. Post: Tim Cook’s First Slip? http://bit.ly/MUv1hJ

  • senter

    Why is almost everybody blaming potential buyers holding out for the iPhone 5 as the major reason for the sales drop? As far as I can see sales lost to Samsung Galaxy III may be a far bigger contributor to the iPhone growth slowdown. Imagine there was no Samsung Galaxy III, would the iPhone sales numbers still have been the same? Isn’t this like the ostrich hiding its head in the sand? And don’t call me an Apple hater, I am a heavy Apple user.

    It seems Apple failed to acknowledge and prepare to enter the market with a much bigger iPhone screen and a smaller iPad form factor. The huge sales number for Samsung Galaxy II and sellout of Google’s Nexus 7 speak volumes.

    I guess we’ll see soon enough how the market evolves once the form factor differentiator wanes by this year’s end.

    • jawbroken

      I don’t see any particular reason to believe either explanation or any way to estimate if you are correct about lost sales being a “far bigger contributor”. Perhaps we’ll need to wait until the next iPhone launch before being able to make reasonable guesses at the answer to this.

    • jan6

      Yes, if there was no Samsung Galaxy, sales numbers would be exaktly the same. Apple is not in competition with with individual handset makers. Android is a plattform, iOS is another one.

      • senter

        Apple is not competing with Samsung…. Hmm, that’s like saying that Ford is not competing with Toyota or other individual car makers. Well then, if Apple is not competing, why does everybody expect it to introduce an iPhone with a bigger screen? Could it be that Apple has finally recognized that there is huge demand for a phone with a bigger screen?

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        Let me answer this by asking a hypothetical question. Assume it’s 2008 and Apple is in the process of planning its product roadmap. Whom would they decide to count as competitors? Android devices have not yet shipped and the gorilla in the space is the BlackBerry with Symbian still overhanging the market with a huge volume lead. Assume further that your decision will define how developers will build apps and content makers will target your product. Did Apple consider Samsung a competitor in 2008? A time when Samsung did not actually make smartphones? Now you may answer that things have changed since 2008 and they have. But the decisions made in 2008 regarding the platform remain in place today. Furthermore if you happen to look at the dozens of hardware designs that are making the rounds today (as evidence for a trial with Samsung) you’ll see familiar designs first penned in 2004 or 2006. Few people appreciate this because few people have spent time in an organization building mass market consumer phones. If your product is a platform product you make decisions six years in advance. If you are a “fast follower” you can make decisions six months in advance. This is asymmetric competition. One competitor sees one basis of competition and another sees it completely differently. They are competing with each other but more as a guerrilla fighter competes with a nuclear missile.

      • jan6

        I do not understand why all the arguments for an iPad Mini do not count when it comes to the iPhone Mini without bigger screen?

        Only a complete fool would think that bigger screen size is the all important factor in a smartphone. I for one do not expect Apple to come up with a bigger screen, when that also means loosing battery life and having a bigger, heavier device to carry around. Everybody is wrong on this.

        And of course Ford and Toyota are competitors. Mercedes ( the inventor of the car ) and Ford are not competitors. As a german car maker, would you build a car with bigger cup holders just because your wannabe competition does? That’s not your metric of quality.
        Apple with Retina goes for sharpness of screen, not size.

      • jan6

        >> Could it be that Apple has finally recognized that there is huge demand for a phone with a bigger screen?

        This is like saying, a phone is a phone and all phones are the same, except different screen sizes. Thats not how it is. Android and iOS are different computing platforms. When you choose iOS over Android, you also choose the AppStore and iCloud and eventually compatibility with OS X over compatibility with Windows. You’re choosing Objective-C and the Cocoa Touch Framework. These technologies define whats possible on an iPhone, and only on other iOS devices like iPod Touch.

        Once you’ve made your choice of platform, you’re pretty much only looking for alternatives within that same platform. Thats why Android makers are in a fierce competition ( which Samsung seems to win ) and Apple can keep high margins as the only iPhone maker in the world. It’s not brand value, it’s exclusivity. You can’t get an iOS Phone from Samsung. Apple only competes on a basis of platform capabilities with Android.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      When you say “as far as I can see” do you have specific data or analysis to support this cause for the iPhone growth slowing in a transition quarter? The iPhone has been competing with non-consumption and to suggest that it’s competing with another product is an extraordinary claim.

      • senter

        Here’s the data I see: Samsung shipped 50 million Galaxy III phones and Apple sold only 25 million iPhones. We don’t know how many of those 50 million were sold, but it is a reasonable expectation that there were more than 25 million. My assumption is that had the Galaxy III not been available as a competing choice, at least some of the people who bought a Galaxy III would have bought an iPhone. My inference is thus that there must have been a significant number of sales lost to Samsung. The lower iPhone sales numbers are a fact. What is not a fact, but a speculation not supported by data, is that the entire slowdown in iPhone sales is due to people waiting for an iPhone. Yes, I too decided not to buy a 4s but wait for the next model, but the fact that I did this does not necessarily mean that everybody else in the world did the same. Some people probably decided to buy a Galaxy III, rather than wait for the iPhone 5. Those are sales lost to Apple and gained by Samsung.

      • Mark S

        I am an Apple fan–we own an Air and an iPad 1 & 2 and use them all the time–and I am not a fan of Samsung. If I was in the market for a smartphone this past year, I would have taken a serious look at the new Galaxy. If I was in the market at this time, I would wait for the i5 and test it out against the Galaxy 3.

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        Samsung did not sell 50 million Galaxy III phones. It is assumed that Samsung sold 50 million smartphones of which an unknown but significant number were Bada phones and a significant number of Android phones were mid- to low-end variants. Samsung has been in a process of shifting the bulk of their feature phone portfolio from running a non-smart to a presumed-smart phone OS. It’s very easy to claim success with smartphones if, as the world’s largest phone vendor, all your feature phones are suddenly declared smart. Note that the company’s overall phone sales increased slightly faster than market rate but their smartphone sales increased by triple figure rates. This is the analysis from April: http://www.asymco.com/2012/04/12/how-samsung-beat-nokia/ I will update this with the last quarter’s data.

      • senter

        I stand corrected – the above should have been “50 million smartphones”, not “50 million Galaxy III phones”. At this point in time the Galaxy III number seems to be more like 10 million since introduction. Still, my assertion is that some of those 10 million Galaxy III sales could have been Apple’s, if Apple had a similar form factor iPhone.

      • KirkBurgess

        From my anecdotal observations here in New Zealand, Samsung is selling a lot of Galaxy S3 handsets to people that otherwise were contemplating the iPhone. The primary reason they chose the S3 over the iPhone was the screen size (although I’m sure the huge Samsung marketing blitz had something to do with it).

        Among our group of friends and work colleagues, my wife and I have seen 8 people buy the galaxy S3 in the last 2 months, compared to one iPhone 4S. Interestingly, none of the new galaxy owners were previously iPhone owners, they were all coming from android or feature phones.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      When you say “as far as I can see” do you have specific data or analysis to support this cause for the iPhone growth slowing in a transition quarter? The iPhone has been competing with non-consumption and to suggest that it’s competing with another product is an extraordinary claim.

    • http://twitter.com/digitalwhite Digital White Ltd.

      Exactly, we agree! The same customers that Apple are trying to attract with the new ads may be put off by iPhone5 lack of a leap in form, regardless of functionality, instead plumping for the new products from Samsung and other manufacturers that have learnt a lot from Apple and are now ‘surpassing’ them. More on this topic here: digital-white.com/blog/12-08-02/An-Apple-problem-a-day-keeps-the-customers-away.aspx

  • http://twitter.com/digitalwhite Digital White Ltd.

    Apple history hasn’t been smooth but they are where they are in the 21st century for a reason. We reckon that any bump along the road will not off balance the innovators of a hundred years, Apple will continue the pursuit for innovation – we are just waiting for the proof. More on this topic here: digital-white.com/blog/12-08-02/An-Apple-problem-a-day-keeps-the-customers-away.aspx