December 2012
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Month December 2012

Entries 5 Total

The uncanny similarity between EU and US smartphone markets

Dec 19, ’12 8:18 PM

comScore released one of its rare updates to the EU5 (Spain, UK, France, Italy and Germany) smartphone market. Note that the data is claiming to show installed base and not sales in any particular period. What interests me is a comparison or contrast between the European market and the US market.

First, total users.

Screen Shot 2012-12-19 at 12-19-7.30.57 PM

The EU has about 500 million inhabitants while Europe overall has 731 million. The EU 5 total about 314 million which is very nearly the same as the US (311.6 million). Therefore the EU5 is a good comparable to the US in terms of population. As the graph above shows it’s also remarkably similar in its adoption of smartphones. Note that the scale reflects users and since the populations are very similar then the penetration should also be similar.

 

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5by5 | The Critical Path #67: Manufacturing Flying Cars

Dec 19, ’12 2:18 PM

On Samsung’s use of Capital, Value Chain Evolution and Below the Surface. Why would you read the balance sheet of a tech company, the difference between R&D and capital spending, how to prevent suppliers becoming competitors and what are the economics of systems and application software in a device-centric model. Finally, why you shouldn’t confuse obscurity with secrecy.

via 5by5 | The Critical Path #67: Manufacturing Flying Cars.

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How much do maps cost and what are they worth?

Dec 18, ’12 3:32 PM

How much does it cost to have the world’s best maps?

The answer may seem simple: $8.1 billion.

That was the cost to Nokia in cash for buying Navteq in October 2007. It would seem that buying that asset (or another one like it) is a cut-and-dried solution to anyone needing a mapping “solution”. But it’s not an answer that is either complete or explanatory of how mapping solutions are valued.

Navteq was not priced as a database for an app. It was a business which was expected to create licensing revenues and profits[1]. The actual price for this business net of cash was $7.7 billion but the following graph shows the net sales and operating profits since Nokia began reporting its performance:

Screen Shot 2012-12-18 at 12-18-3.13.12 PM

The blue area represents the difference between sales and costs and hence the operating expenses–the payments needed to “keep the lights on”.

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Calibrating launch performance for the iPhone in China

Dec 17, ’12 2:48 PM

When the iPhone 5 launched Apple promised availability in 100 countries before the end of year. This was a very aggressive plan given the gradual release of previous products. Last year the iPhone 4S only arrived in China (along with 21 additional countries) on January 13th. This year it was almost a month earlier.

Apple also announced for the first time this year first weekend sales for China: 2 million. This is, as far as I know, the first weekend sales data for a single market outside of the US. The time span was three days and therefore the daily sales rate was 2/3 million per day.

The following chart compares the launch performance for the launches which Apple reported:

Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 12-17-2.44.04 PM

If we normalize by population,

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Below the Surface

Dec 13, ’12 4:01 PM

Early data shows that the PC market has not experienced a “pop” from Windows 8. Market watchers have been anticipating this pop since every previous version of Windows has led to a surge in shipments. PC vendors have also been hoping for this to lift their volumes. Volumes have been stagnant for a while, as the following chart shows:

Screen Shot 2012-12-13 at 12-13-3.45.58 PM

If we combine the traditional PC and tablet markets—what I refer to as “large and medium screen PCs”— there has been growth. However the growth is all due to the tablets. When seen in a share split (blue tablets vs. brown Windows PC’s) the shift toward tablet computing is clear.

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