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Day July 1, 2013

What's a BlackBerry user worth?

Last week BlackBerry announced that it had 72 million subscriber accounts. The current market capitalization is $5.4 billion and enterprise value (i.e. excluding net cash) is about $2.8 billion.

That implies a net present value of about $40 for each account. This is quite a drop from early 2010 when the value was $866.

The graph of BlackBerry subscriber accounts and EV/account is shown below:

Screen Shot 2013-07-01 at 7-1-10.09.16 AM
I’ve also added a graph showing a derived value of US consumer BlackBerry users (derived from comScore’s survey data).

There are several patterns which intrigue me:

Screen Time #40: The Puck

Horace Dediu and Guy English join Moisés to look at the rallying forces in the arms race for content. Does Apple have too well-entrenched a lead? How will their gaming strategy compete with traditional consoles? How and why would they make a TV set?

via 5by5 | Screen Time #40: The Puck.