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AMP Index update

The following graphs show the most visible global phone brands and the approximate percent of value they captured since 2007.

Screen Shot 2013-08-21 at 8-21-6.17.19 PM

The graphs each show trailing four quarter average of shares of units shipped, revenues, operating profits and smartphones shipped. I also averaged the four shares into a single share number called the AMP index (Asymco Mobile Performance).

Note that this data ignores those “other” vendors whose financials are not available.

I placed all AMP indexes on the same graph and looked for some patterns. The result is shown below.

Screen Shot 2013-08-21 at 8-21-6.58.01 PM

It’s not much to go on, but there seems to a pattern where each vendor reaches a peak share, though that peak varies greatly in value. If the pattern holds, we could perhaps anticipate a peak for Samsung in one year or so.

I’m searching for some hypothesis of what is happening and what is causing this pattern, if it is a pattern. The instability of the market is certainly a pattern. (Many markets would show horizontal lines for many years rather than what we see here.)

But the constant turnover and the periodicity of success and failure is a characteristic of either a market where there is a hidden hand (operators? regulation? etc.) or one where disruptive change is extremely consistent and rapid.