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Day December 13, 2013

The US Auto Industry Summarized

As automobiles become smartphone accessories, they become an interesting industry to study. Here is a recent (since 1961) history of the US market.

Screen Shot 2013-12-13 at 12-13-11.49.12 AM

How many Americans will be using an iPhone when the US smartphone market saturates?

As previously noted, the US smartphone market has followed an almost perfectly logistic growth. The measured data (via comScore, in green below) follows a predictive logistic function (thin blue whose formula is discussed here).

Screen Shot 2013-12-13 at 12-13-11.30.54 AM

The other notable market observation is how closely the iPhone follows the same pattern as the market. The red line representing the iPhone above is almost perfectly parallel to the green and blue lines which represent the overall market. The reason for this seems to be that consumers are absorbing the product in similar way to how they are absorbing the technology.[1] The “learning model” which underpins logistic models could offer clues as to the cause. It suggests that there is a direct communication that happens between the product and the consumer.

Notes:
  1. Note that this pattern of adoption has happened even though the product has been at least partially unavailable to the entire market until quite recently. []