May 2014
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Month May 2014

Measuring Not Getting the Cloud

This is what “Not getting the Cloud” looks like:

Screen Shot 2014-05-09 at 5-9-3.30.03 PM

Screen Shot 2014-05-09 at 5-9-4.04.33 PM


“Not getting the cloud” means that in the last 12 months Apple obtained:

  • 800 million iTunes users and
  • an estimated 450 million iCloud users spending
  • $3 billion/yr for end-user services plus
  • $4.7 billion/yr for licensing and other income which includes
  • more than $1 billion/yr paid by Google for traffic through Apple devices and
  • $13 billion/yr in app transactions of which
  • $9 billion/yr was paid to developers and
  • $3.9 billion/yr was retained as operating budget and profit for the App Store. In addition,
  • $2.7 billion/yr in music download sales and
  • more than $1 billion/yr in Apple TV (aka Apple’s Kindle) and video sales and
  • $1 billion/yr in eBooks sold

In summary, iTunes, Software and Services has been growing between 30% and 40% for four years and is on its way to $30 billion/yr in transactions and sales for 2014.

This is what can be deduced from a reading of Apple’s financial statements of operations. If there are comparable details for companies which do get the cloud, I’ll be happy to tally the comparison so we can calibrate this failure.

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How close is the UK to smartphone saturation?

In How close to saturation is the smartphone I highlighted that the US is not nearly saturated at 68.8% penetration at the end of March. Since the US is not the highest penetrated, one may wonder whether other “developed” countries are far further along.

There is no data on all the countries in the world on the same resolution as that in the US, but thanks to Charles Arthur, Kantar shared data on the UK and we can have a clear trajectory for that country.

The most recent data for UK was as of February 2014 when penetration was 70%.

Screen Shot 2014-05-08 at 5-8-6.31.48 PM

In February the US figure was 68.2%, so the US is 1.8% behind in penetration. The equivalent picture of the US is below:

How close to saturation is the smartphone?

The US is not the market where penetration is highest. However, it is the largest market where we have reliable penetration data (from at least two sources) and the one where penetration is near the top of the range.

The graph showing the US ranked against others as of a year ago is here. The US was cited at 56.4% at the time. I keep track of comScore’s data and it showed 58.2% at the end of March and 55.3% at the end of January, making the figure very believable.

The most recent data from comScore shows penetration at 68.8%. In order to understand what the limits of that growth could be it’s important to see the longer-term pattern. It would show whether there is a clear point of inflection and thus a predictable “saturation” around an asymptotic value.

The following graph shows the percentage of smartphone users/non-users since late 2009.

Screen Shot 2014-05-08 at 5-8-6.13.29 PM

The following graph shows the rate at which users are being added to the smartphone ranks (measured as new users per month.)

Screen Shot 2014-05-08 at 5-8-6.14.01 PM


To summarize, the conversion of users from non-smart to smartphone usage is fairly constant. The March ’14 period saw 2.8 million new-to-smartphone users. the March ’13 period saw 3.0 million, the March ’12 period saw 2.0 million and March ’11 saw 3.0 million. There is no discernible slowing of adoption.

Note that I added a trailing three period average in new users which fluctuates somewhat predictably due to seasonality. Finally, note that the figure of 50% penetration was reached almost two years ago and no noticeable change of adoption has happened since. Cellular phone ownership in the US is still rising (though very slowly) and it now about 90%.

The only conclusion is that even at the current 68.8% penetration, we are not anywhere near “saturation” of smartphone users in the US, and the US is a leader among “developed markets” so there is little to suggest that saturation has happened anywhere with significant populations.