September 2014
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
« Aug   Oct »
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930  

Day September 4, 2014

Going where the money is

The bank robber Willie Sutton did not say, when asked why he robbed banks, “because that’s where the money is.” He did agree with the idea however saying “Go where the money is…and go there often”.

Regardless of it being apocryphal, this idea came to be called Sutton’s Law and is often taught to medical students. It’s similar to the notion of Occam’s Razor: when an obvious or simple answer competes with an obscure or complicated answer, pick the obvious one first.

These are sound analytical rules of thumb. When thinking about what products and services could arise in the immediate future, those most obvious and with fewest assumptions should be put forward first. The what part is relatively easy. The tough question is more about when will they emerge?

We now know that Apple will announce new products on September 9th[1]. This gives us an idea of when something will happen, answering the tougher question. It leaves the simpler question of what will emerge.

I put forward my predictions as follows:

  • Regarding iPhone, a tweet on product mix and pricing.
  • Regarding an “iWatch”, an answer to a question from Eric Jackson.
  • Regarding the potential for wearables, a post on the subject.

One more item has surfaced on the potential of payments processing which I want to address now.

Handling payments, to me, is a perfectly plausible activity for Apple mostly because the company has made quite a few comments on the value of their “customers with credit cards” and the effort that went into Touch ID (which seems to be extravagant relative to the value of rapid unlocking).

But one word of caution: if Apple does enable payments it’s important to realize that being a (payment) bit pipe is not a particularly profitable business. It will undoubtedly bind value to the iOS devices which make it possible, but I don’t think there will be a direct capture of profit from the transactions themselves.

Notes:
  1. I’ll be there and will report via Twitter and a special session of The Critical Path podcast []