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Day May 21, 2015

Schiller’s Law

We know how many iPhones Apple ships but we don’t know exactly how many of each model. We can try to come close in such estimates of “mix” by looking also at the market pricing of the phones and the average price Apple obtains[1]

Combining what we know with some guesses allows some of us to estimate the composition of iPhone models in any given quarter’s sales. Here is a graph showing my estimates:

 

Screen Shot 2015-05-22 at 2.53.36 PM

Having this, we can then assess how each generation of iPhones has performed. Remember that although we had a new iPhone for each of the last eight years, there are only 5 generations in total. Starting with the 3G (second generation) the generations were two yearly product cycles long.

The resulting estimates for generational growth are shown below. 

Notes:
  1. ASP = Revenue/Units shipped. However, note that there are deferrals in revenue as part of this. []