When the iPhone 4S launched, one million units were pre-ordered and 4 million units were sold during its opening weekend. That made the daily rate during the 4S weekend 1.3 million units/day or one third faster than the pre-order rate of 1 million units/day.
When the iPhone 5 launched, 2 million were pre-ordered and “over” 5 million were sold during during the opening weekend. That made the daily rate during the launch weekend about 1.7 million which was about 15% slower than the pre-order rate. However, a few months later the 5 launched in China setting an opening rate of 2 million in three days or about 666k/day. Adding China’s rate to the Rest of World rate yields about 2.4 million/day or about 20% faster than the pre-order rate.
When the iPhone 6/6Plus launched, 4 million were pre-ordered and 10 million were sold during the opening weekend. That made a daily rate during the launch weekend about 3.3 million, again lower than the 4 million/day in pre-orders. However, just like the 5, the 6 launch excluded China. If we assume that a China launch would have run 30% faster than the 5 launch then my estimate of launch performance for the iPhone range is shown in the graph below:
I included in the graph the various other launch volume data we have available.
I also included lines showing how pre-order volumes relate to weekend values for the products where we know both.
It therefore does not seem improbable that had China been available (and at the time when it will be) the iPhone launch weekend rate for the 6/6Plus combo would have been about 4 million/day. A rate consistent with the history for the product.
I was a guest on Moisés Chiullan’s Electric Shadow along with Jason Snell and John Gruber. We talk about how “Cinematic” applies to Apple’s approach to communications.
via 14: Orson Welles of the Genre.
This is a good one.
Why did the Tata Nano fail? What is the future of low end disruption in the auto industry?
What does sharing mean for cars? What are the jobs that spaces in cars are hired for that their makers don’t understand?
Is Elon Musk an Industrialist?
via Asymcar 18: Cars of the People | Asymcar.
How and why does Apple get paid for Apple Pay? Anders and Horace dive into the payments value chain and break it all down for you: whats in it for users, merchants, issuing banks and payment networks. What are the risks and opportunities for Apple? Is there a disruption about to happen?
via 5by5 | The Critical Path #122: Where the Money is.
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When the iPhone launched, Steve Jobs introduced it as being three products in one:
- A wide-screen iPod
- A phone
- A breakthrough internet communicator
When the Apple Watch launched, Tim Cook introduced it as being three things:
- A precise timepiece
- A new, intimate way to communicate
- A comprehensive health and fitness device.
In 2011 I wrote:
My hypothesis is that The Primary Cause for the shift of profits from Incumbents to Entrants has been the disruptive impact of a new input method.
It was a description of what I considered to be the “disruptive technology” which caused incumbents which had a “front-row seat” to the future of their industry to be completely displaced and marginalized by an entrant with no discernible right to do what they did.
I illustrated what underpinned the sea change in the phone business via the slide that Steve Jobs used in the iPhone launch event:
I added the years when each input method was introduced and the platform/ecosystems created as a result. These new ecosystems were the primary cause for dramatic industry-sized shifts in profits.
Not coincidentally, during the 2014 Apple Watch launch, the presentation began with a re-telling of the “mouse, click wheel and Multi-Touch” story.
Seven years later, the difference is that there is a new object added to the story. It answers the question that has been on my mind since that first post on revolutionary user interfaces was written: what will come next.
Now that we have an answer, the next step is to understand the new platform, its ecosystem; which industry will be affected and which incumbents will be displaced and to what degree will value be created beyond that which will be displaced.
Piece of cake.
Farshad Nayeri, Anders Brownworth and I discuss Apple Watch as I drive from the launch venue to the airport.
via 5by5 | The Critical Path #121: There’s A Lot More To Say.
Anders Brownworth and Horace Preview of Apples September 2014 special event. We focus on how Apparel gets disrupted. We also wrap the Creativity, Inc. book review.
via 5by5 | The Critical Path #120: I wish I could say Less.
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Dash just added Gmail widgets yesterday, and they’re already one of the more popular widgets on the site. By default they show your inbox, but you can also set them up with Gmail search phrases like “label:apple”. You can even combine search terms to produce results like “all email received in the last 12 hours containing the phrase ‘scoop’ and an attachment.”
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