Categories

Author Horace Dediu

Asymcar 12: Cycle Times

We discuss the zeitgeist of automotive decline.

We marvel – again – at the industry’s glacial pace of change and contrast the auto industry’s tiny volumes to smartphones and personal computers.

via Asymcar 12: Cycle Times | Asymcar.

 

Significant Digits Episode 1 Part 1

Show #1: The Future of the Internet and Everything

Part 1: The Internet is dead, long live the Internet
The data shows the Internet growth will go through an inflection point. Should we panic or celebrate?

 

In this inaugural episode we open with the biggest question facing the biggest technological innovation of our time: the limit to growth of the Internet. The Internet is the backbone of our post-industrial society as much as the railroad was the backbone of the industrial revolution. Even more so, the diffusion of internet consumption is the fundamental engine of growth at a time when industrial economies are all mired in syndromes of underinvestment and misallocation of resources.

And so it matters greatly if and when the Internet will “inflect” in growth, going from acceleration to deceleration. Mobile computing sustained this acceleration, bringing computing and connectivity to the billions for whom the PC would always be beyond reach. But even with the expansion of device-based usage limits are in sight.

The implications could be profound. Frothy valuations and optimism could evaporate. Venture Capital could find few exits and the “second Internet Bubble” could burst. On the other hand, maybe the data shows that opportunity is largely unmet. Quantity of users is but one proxy. How can growth and business model innovation continue?

To help us think this through I have as my guest Marko Anderson, cofounder of Random [1] and a former colleague at Nokia.

Stay tuned for four more parts:

  • Part 2: Browsing vs. Apps The HTML5 vs. Native debate and the jobs the Internet is hired to do.
  • Part 3: Monetize This The problem with business model innovation. When the ad dollars run out, what will take their place?
  • Part 4: Random How discovery is changing and the value of irrationality.
  • Part 5: Glass is half full How can we screw this up? Privacy, Surveillance and The Internet Citizen’s Bill of Rights.

Significant Digits is a talk show where we take time to recognize patterns in the lives of technologies.

Notes:
  1. Run out of Internet to read? Random’s new iOS app is for you []

The Critical Path #115: The Canvas of Pixels

Horace and Moisés talk about Amazons acquisition of ComiXology, digging into the very “local” nature of book publishing in general and the extreme regional differences in content popularity and delivery.

via 5by5 | The Critical Path #115: The Canvas of Pixels.

Sponsor: Dash

Dash is a website that lets people quickly create real-time dashboards. Public dashboards are free so that people can share live data with the community. Free accounts also come with one private dashboard.

There are pre-built widgets for services like:

  • Twitter
  • Google Analytics
  • Instagram
  • News
  • Weather
  • GitHub
  • appFigures
  • Chartbeat
  • Pingdom
  • more…

You may be more inclined to display custom data, however. Dash allows you to share data from Dropbox or the web with custom widgets like:

Dash makes their money from business accounts, which are fantastic. You can manage your team with advanced permissions and the convenience of centralized billing. It’s everything you need to securely share dashboards within your Organization. Pricing is $795 per year for 5 users, and includes all the dashboards you need.

Free accounts include one private and unlimited public dashboards. Signup is fast and painless.

dash

via Syndicate Ads

Inventive Teens

Philip Elmer-DeWitt cited Piper Jaffray’s latest Teen Survey on Device Ownership where ~7,500 teens in the US are asked about their device ownership. This type of data is similar to the method comScore uses to measure penetration smartphones in the US making the two data sets comparable.

The combined data is shown the following graphs.

Screen Shot 2014-04-10 at 4-10-3.07.04 PM

One graph is the penetration data and the other is the ratio of penetration to unpenetrated on a log scale. The PJC Teen Survey data is shown as dots on both graphs. In the spring of 2012 the difference between teen iPhone ownership and overall population iPhone ownership was 20 percentage points. In the fall 2012 it was 22 points. In spring 2013 it was 25 points. The spread increased to 30 points in the fall of 2013.

Sponsor: AAPLTrader.com

AAPLTrader.com shows you how to create a winning AAPL trading strategy that’s right for you!

Register Here for a Free AAPL Trading Webinar and get a Free Membership to the AAPLTrader Community.

Webinar Details: This Thursday, March 20th at 7pm ET

Here’s what you’re going to learn:

  • How to Swing Trade AAPL with 75% Accuracy
  • Credit Spreads Vs. Debit Spreads, which are better?
  • How to cash flow your AAPL Shares
  • And much much more…

Click Here to register for the webinar and get your Free AAPLTrader membership. Don’t miss this event…If you trade or invest in AAPL and other stocks you absolutely have to join the AAPLTrader Community for this FREE Webinar! Special Bonus Opportunity for those who attend… ( The replay will be available for those who can’t make it live, but only for those who create a free membership)

asymcoadd3-17-14

Invaluable

The smartphone market continues to grow. 2013 saw total shipment of around one billion units (up from 683 million in 2012). In contrast, non-smartphone shipments continue to decline, with shipments around 800 million (down from 987 million in 2012).

This pattern is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-03-18 at 3-18-12.45.12 PM

Note that prior to 2012 the non-smart market seemed to be holding steady in spite of the growth in smartphones. The notion that smartphones would become universal was widely dismissed. I certainly heard many objections to my 2010 hypothesis that not only would smartphones become ubiquitous but that it would become increasingly difficult to find anything else to buy. (This in spite of the clearly evident demand for “low-end” non-smart devices.)[1]

I also suggested that the notion of distinguishing phones with the”smart” tag would become irrelevant and that we would just call these devices “phones”.

Notes:
  1. The analogy I used was that of the black-and-white TV market as color TV became increasingly popular. There probably was a market for monochrome screens for a long time after they were discontinued but that is beside the point: the old technology becomes increasingly scarce because of economies of scale []

The Thin Red Line | Asymcar

We explore the strategic and tactical considerations behind BMW’s i sub-brand. Why did BMW attach a new BMW sub-brand to a new powertrain rather than using another brand, like Mini? The answer helps explain how innovations and brands inter-relate and how incumbents can attempt to absorb what is potentially non-sustaining.

We consider the pros and cons of innovation within an operating business – “intrepreneurship” – compared with creating an autonomous enterprise for the “new new thing”. I contrast BMW i with General Motors’ failed Saturn experiment.

We consider the burden that regulation, girth, cycle times, legacy practices, financialization and strategy taxes place on incumbents.

Finally, we look at what it takes to cross over the line which separates the device-based nice-to-have infotainment options from the must-have driver and ownership assistants that will inevitably find home in these devices.

via The Thin Red Line | Asymcar.

Sponsor: Tab Dump

There was once a time when websites published only what mattered and nothing else. But thanks to the way content is monetized, today’s journalists have become the equivalent of 1950s factory floor workers. Tab Dump aims to wind back the clock to a simpler time by rethinking what a news site should look like.

First: Forget rich media, and forget stories in reverse chronological order. Tab Dump has no images, so it loads instantly, and it’s split into two sections: Tech News and World News. Each section has stories listed alphabetically, making it easier to find the exact story you care about.

Second: The “stories” are only a few sentences long, packed with as much detail as possible, because your time is valuable, so why waste it with filler?

And third: Tab Dump has opted out of the page view race, there’s only one Tab Dump per day.

tabdump

On Google’s Future. Part 1

From 2005 through 2012 Google site revenues[1] have risen at a rate consistent  with the growth in global Internet population excluding China[2]. The Internet population and Google.com revenues for the period 2005-2012 are shown in the following graph.

Screen Shot 2014-03-13 at 3-13-3.17.02 PM

The correlation is shown in the following graph:

Screen Shot 2014-03-13 at 3-13-3.17.21 PM

Taking into account costs and expenses, on a per-user basis profitability per user (assuming all non-Chinese internet users are Google users) is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-03-13 at 3-13-3.17.14 PM

The simple conclusion is that Google earns approximately $1.2 per user per quarter (net income is the blue area above). This figure is relatively constant with a slight increase (~20%) over 3 years.

If the company does not alter its business model then the future potential of the business could be measured as a function of Internet (ex. China) population growth.

How hard can that be?

The next post will answer this question.

Notes:
  1. Google revenues are reported as “Google.com”, “Network”, “Motorola” and “Other”. For this analysis I am including only the Google.com revenues []
  2. Internet population is calculated as a combination of penetration as reported by the ITU and population data from the World Bank []