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This is a good one.

Horace and Anders discuss Apple earnings, the iPhone X and take listener questions.

Does the iPhone 8 have what it takes to be a success?

Source: ¿El iPhone 8 tiene lo que se necesita para ser un éxito?

The above interview was conducted October 17 with Carlos Morales
Editor en Jefe, Forbes Digital (Mexico).

The source questions and my answers in English are below:

How can we read the fact that the new iPhone lineup raised so little noise? There was no massive lines outside the Apple Stores and people demonstrated almost zero interest in the new models compared with the hype motivated by the iPhone 7.

I don’t know about you but I don’t like waiting in lines. I don’t think Apple considers waiting in lines to be a good user experience for its customers. Over the years Apple has been able to improve availability and online orders so that lines can be eliminated. I suggest a better way to gauge interest in new models and that would be to look at sales. Sales seem to be going up even as lines have been going down.

The iPhone 8. What do you think of the fact that the iPhone 7 is outselling the iPhone 8?

Is it a fact? I think this notion is coming from a survey of operator stores in the US over a short time period. The mix of phones has never been known and is a matter of speculation. The only data we do have is the average selling price derived by dividing the revenues by the number of units sold (and ignoring deferrals). This price set a new record during the last 12 months. Expectations are that it will increase to another record again next year. I might add that this has never been observed in the phone business as far as I know. The opposite has been the trend.

Whats the outlook for the the iPhone 8 vs the iPhone 7 and the iPhone X?

The iPhone 8 is likely to be the best selling model over the next 12 months. The iPhone X will be the best seller in the first quarter but I expect it will come second during the following quarters. The iPhone 7 will end up 3rd.

What do you think about the smartphone prices, aren’t they too high? How far can they be stretched ?

Smartphone prices are very low. World-wide, average smartphones sell for less than $300. You can see a break-down by region here.

iPhone prices are, on average, more than double the average of all smartphones. Note that apple’s latest line-up also includes the cheapest iPhone ever with the SE now starting at $350.

I don’t think the average selling price will increase in 2018 globally. It will probably decrease as it has for a long time. Average iPhone prices will increase but probably only by $10 or so.

The iPhone price tiers are well understood. I published an analysis here:

More important however is that the iPhone remains priced at about $1/day, no matter the model, and as such the value users perceive is very high. The most expensive iPhone costs about 8 cents per hour of use, 1.4 cents each time you unlock it and 1 cent for ever 25 interactions you have with it (touches or taps). On a per use basis the iPhone is extraordinarily cheap. I know of no consumer product that is cheaper. This is determined partly by the intensity of use and by the high resale value (I assume 30% residual value after 2 years).

Do we really need a borderless OLED display in a smartphone? What about the face recognition technology?

Having no borders means you can get a screen that is bigger than the iPhone Plus in a phone the size of an iPhone. I think users will value getting more screen in a smaller phone. I certainly would. Having OLED means it can be curved a bit and also have nicer, truer black.

Face recognition saves time and is more secure. I don’t know another way of making the experience better for something that you do 30,000 times a year.

What do you think about the Apple Watch, which seems to be—finally—on the right track?

The Apple Watch has been on the same track for 2.5 years. I don’t see any change in that trajectory.

 

 

Join the Micromobility Summit in Copenhagen September 6

I’m Happy to announce that I’ll be hosting the Micromobility Summit at Techfestival this year. Taking place on September 6 in Copenhagen, the one-day summit explores how new technologies affect society, cities and urbanization in the very near future.

Join and contribute here

About Techfestival:

This September, Copenhagen will be home to 15,000+ people exploring a new, progressive agenda on technology. One week filled with 100+ conferences, summits, dinners, art installations and concerts, Techfestival’s goal is to break down today’s most complex questions into real talk and tangible experiences.f

The Critical Path #201: Like a Costco Pickle Jar

Horace and Carolina Milanese discuss WWDC 2017 minutes after the Keynote and Hands-on with the new products.

Source: 5by5 | The Critical Path #201: Like a Costco Pickle Jar

Post-keynote Apple event San Francisco – September 8

 

I will be presenting my latest analysis of Apple at the Sustain event in San Francisco on Thursday Sept 8th, the day after Apple’s keynote, along with Ben Bajarin, Carolina Milanesi who will alsob equipped with their latest market insights.

sustain-title-white

There is a time to disrupt and there is a time to sustain.

Sustain event is about understanding Apple’s levers of control to sustain the iPhone as it moves into direct competition with Android. We will also examine positions of top five technology brands: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.

Learn more about the event at Airshow.io. Given he short notice, we are keeping this event on the small side so reserve your seat soon.

Mini Me

Horace and Henri go for a drive.

The Critical Path is sponsored by Wealthfront, the automated investment service that makes it easy to invest your money the right way. Get your first $15,000 managed for free when you visit Wealthfront.com/5by5.

Support also comes from Braintree, code for easy online payments. If you’re building a mobile app and searching for a simple payments solution, check out BraintreePayments.com/criticalpath.

Source: The Critical Path #186

The Critical Path #185: Lithium Iron Phosphate

Horace gives an update on his EVW electric car project, listener-contributed battery technology information and listener questions in this extended episode.

Source: The Critical Path #185

Asymcar #35: We Are Germans

Can utility companies be recruited to help sell Electric Vehicles when they reward their customers for using less electricity?

This plus the paradoxes of innovations in distribution, sales, regulation and the 1959/1960 Henney Kilowatt.

Source: Asymcar #35

The Critical Path #183

Horace and Farshad discuss Apple’s recent milestone of one billion iPhones shipped. They also answer a slew of #CriticalQuestions.

Source: The Critical Path #183

The Critical Path #180: Asking the right questions

Horace and Anders discuss the numbers from WWDC, what didn’t come from WWDC.  And cars!

Source: The Critical Path #180