The diffusion of iPhones as a learning process

All theoretical and empirical diffusion studies agree that an innovation diffuses along a S-shaped trajectory. Indeed, the S-shaped pattern of diffusion appears to be a basic anthropologic phenomenon. This observation dates as far back as 1895 when the French sociologist Gabriel Tarde first described the process of social change by an imitative “group-think” mechanism and a S-shaped … Continue reading “The diffusion of iPhones as a learning process”

The iPhone company

The analyses of adoption of smartphones in the US and EU5 are remarkably consistent with each other. They also turn out to be consistent with the valuation of Apple. I show the stages of adoption overlaid with the derivative of the Logistic Function and Apple’s enterprise value. The derivative of the Logistic Function shows the … Continue reading “The iPhone company”

The figurative sales of iPhones and BlackBerries

The most interesting juxtaposition in market data happened this week. Apple announced 9 million units of the iPhone 5s/c sold in their opening weekend while BlackBerry recognized 3.7 million smartphones sold in the three months ended August 31. I will state these data points with a different emphasis:  while Apple explicitly reported, both in a … Continue reading “The figurative sales of iPhones and BlackBerries”

iPhones 5c and 5s launch performance illustrated

Apple today announced it has sold nine million new iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c models in the first three days after their launch. This performance is illustrated in the following graph: Note that the data is normalized to units/day. The launch countries this year differed from last year in that they include all of China … Continue reading “iPhones 5c and 5s launch performance illustrated”

The job the iPhone is hired to do, part II

I repeat what I’ve mentioned before: The iPhone is primarily hired as a premium network service salesman. It receives a “commission” for selling a premium service in the form of a premium price. Because it’s so good at it, the premium is quite high. The job the iPhone is hired to do  The original post … Continue reading “The job the iPhone is hired to do, part II”

The cost of building Galaxies (and iPhones)

Although Samsung and Apple are acclaimed as the leaders in profit capture for smart (and otherwise) phones, what is not lauded is how much they spend on capital equipment used in the making of these phones. In 2012 Samsung spent around $20 billion while Apple spent about $10 billion (excluding leasehold improvements or Apple stores … Continue reading “The cost of building Galaxies (and iPhones)”

How many iPhones will T-Mobile USA sell?

From the initial product launch until the end of 2012, AT&T has activated 72 million iPhones. Verizon began selling iPhones four years after AT&T and managed to activate 26 million since. Sprint began nine months after Verizon and has activated 8.5 million. In proportion of their subscriber bases, the activations are shown in the following … Continue reading “How many iPhones will T-Mobile USA sell?”