The following graph shows the history of smartphone volume shipments from Nokia.
Lumia sales have increased to 5.6 million units last quarter. Up from 4.4 during the previous quarter. Symbian devices have nearly disappeared from the market with only 0.5 million shipped.
This puts an end to Symbian sales after over a decade since sales start and two years after it was declared that sales would end.
The bad news remains that smart devices as defined by Nokia are still not profitable. If volumes grow it’s possible that the cost structure (without further cuts) can be sustained and perhaps the business will get its footing.
The level of 6 million units/quarter is about where HTC and RIM are today but only half of what ZTE and Huawei are probably shipping. As a hardware business it might work, barely. It certainly helps to have $250 million as platform support payments from Microsoft.
As a platform it’s still a very long haul for Windows Phone. Even if we assume a nominal $15 revenue/ Windows Phone license and ignore the kickback, at this level of sales the platform generates less income than what Microsoft gets from licensing IP to Android vendors.
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The best and brightest are usually put to work on optimisation, and asked to improve the way things work. ‘Can you make it better, faster, and stronger?’ They will then go forward and solve the inefficiencies, and that’s where 99% of most energy is spent on. But, at some point you run out of room to improve things, and that’s when you have step aside and ask, can we make it different?
via Horace Dediu: Asymco Interview – Why Businesses are more Fragile than People.
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A report on Ùll with recollections from Don Metlon and Michael B. Johnson (Dr. Wave): what is a functional organization and why is that a thing of beauty? What do Pixar and Apple have in common? What is Horace’s favorite Pixar movie? Also a new mini-installment on “Asymcar”, what’s wrong with cars?
via 5by5 | The Critical Path #80: Functional Structure.
The Windows PC market is contracting. The market data has been showing unit shipment declining for some time with the latest quarter having perhaps the steepest decline for two decades.
What remains undocumented however is how the market looks when considering economic value. A more complete picture would be to show revenues, average selling price (or revenue/unit), operating margins/unit and percent of profit capture.
The data is not beyond reach however. It involves combining the shipment estimates from e.g. Gartner with financial reports from the companies themselves. Some analysis is required to estimate margins but they are also not hard to obtain (e.g. from third parties.)
So here is a view of the market for the fourth quarter 2012: