The following interview took place by email on April 15th, 2013.
1. What are the truth and false about the ‘Apple shock’ currently? In what perspective should we see this?
First, I’d point out that during Steve Jobs’ time the company suffered many such shocks. The stock fell many times far further than it just did for trivial and irrational reasons. Recently Warren Buffett himself pointed out that his own company had 50% drops in value four times in the past. Share prices are not always good indicators of potential and markets are not always efficient. I catalogued the dramatic share price declines in Apple during the last decade here.
Second, I’d point out that the number of people watching and commenting on Apple has grown almost as fast as its sales and earnings. When Apple was small the people who studied Apple were few. (You could see this today for other, modest tech companies. There aren’t 50 analysts writing reports every day and 2000 bloggers tweeting about Lenovo even though it’s a successful and growing PC company.) Because of this growth, I would guess 80% of the observers have not observed Apple’s prior painful episodes first hand. For them this is the first time a “dominant” Apple has slowed. The amplification of so many voices raising alarm makes it seem truer, but it isn’t.
Third, the failures being cited are not significant. In terms of increased competition, before Samsung there was Nokia and Motorola and the mobile Operators and Microsoft and Dell and many others long forgotten. They were all about to “defeat” Apple. As a quick example when Apple was “the iPod company,” iTunes was considered vulnerable and fragile due to DRM concerns or the Beatles not being on it. Microsoft was launching “Plays for Sure” and Zune and Creative was suing Apple over patents. These battles are long forgotten. Before those there were concerns about the viability of the Mac that go back decades. At the time those were actually very valid concerns. At the time Apple did not have half a billion users. It depended on one product. But what saved them was a process of development of new products not the products themselves. iPod faded, Mac faded. What mattered is that they created new things to replace them.
Finally, what is not commonly understood is that the mechanism for creating things at Apple is unchanged. Its functional organization is inherently unstable and chaotic, sometimes looking like it will derail. But that’s the way it was designed to be. You just have to have faith that it’s a system that works. Those who did in the past were well rewarded.
2. What possibilities out of 1~10, do you think, Apple will suffer the same downfall as Steve jobs has left the company in the past in current?
The following graph shows the history of smartphone volume shipments from Nokia.
Lumia sales have increased to 5.6 million units last quarter. Up from 4.4 during the previous quarter. Symbian devices have nearly disappeared from the market with only 0.5 million shipped.
This puts an end to Symbian sales after over a decade since sales start and two years after it was declared that sales would end.
The bad news remains that smart devices as defined by Nokia are still not profitable. If volumes grow it’s possible that the cost structure (without further cuts) can be sustained and perhaps the business will get its footing.
The level of 6 million units/quarter is about where HTC and RIM are today but only half of what ZTE and Huawei are probably shipping. As a hardware business it might work, barely. It certainly helps to have $250 million as platform support payments from Microsoft.
As a platform it’s still a very long haul for Windows Phone. Even if we assume a nominal $15 revenue/ Windows Phone license and ignore the kickback, at this level of sales the platform generates less income than what Microsoft gets from licensing IP to Android vendors.
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The best and brightest are usually put to work on optimisation, and asked to improve the way things work. ‘Can you make it better, faster, and stronger?’ They will then go forward and solve the inefficiencies, and that’s where 99% of most energy is spent on. But, at some point you run out of room to improve things, and that’s when you have step aside and ask, can we make it different?
via Horace Dediu: Asymco Interview – Why Businesses are more Fragile than People.
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A report on Ùll with recollections from Don Metlon and Michael B. Johnson (Dr. Wave): what is a functional organization and why is that a thing of beauty? What do Pixar and Apple have in common? What is Horace’s favorite Pixar movie? Also a new mini-installment on “Asymcar”, what’s wrong with cars?
via 5by5 | The Critical Path #80: Functional Structure.