On September 1st, Apple announced that 120 million iOS devices were sold to date.
We know that there were 59.6 million iPhones sold through June (from SEC filings)
We also know that 3.2 million iPads were sold.
If we assume about 8 million iPhones and 4 million iPads were sold during August and July, the total number of iPod touch sold is 45.2 million.
That is 37.7% of total units.
In April I wrote that 41% of all iOS units sold were iPod touch to date.
The expansion of iPhone distribution plus the addition of iPad as reduced the platform footprint for the iPod, but it’s still a sizable chunk. More than one in three iOS units in use are non-cellular devices. As the iPad rolls that number could move toward 50%.
The latest iOS numbers and the new iPod touch launch demonstrate what a huge hit the iPod touch has become. It’s safe to assume that about half of all iPods, or between 4 and 5 million units in the current quarter, are sold as touch versions.
The iPod touch has been around about as long as the iPhone. It was launched three months after the first iPhone 2G, almost exactly three years ago. While the iPad has been in the market less than six months, a large number of potential competitors have been launched running Android and there seems to be a real rush to market. Six months is about as quickly as any hardware product can be reasonably engineered.
So the question is why is the iPad being cloned while the iPod has remained in the market by itself?
The value of the iPod is arguably as high with a healthy margin and consistent pricing. The volumes are comparable with tens of millions already sold so there is no obvious economic disadvantage to the iPod vs. iPad. Indeed, the iPod touch is a large (1.6) multiplier to the whole iOS platform. The demographics are very sweet too with a clear upsell opportunity.
One explanation might be that the iPod is a music device and that market has been locked up with iTunes, putting up a huge barrier to entry. However during the music launch this month, there was almost no mention of the iPod touch as a music player while it was loudly touted as a game and app platform. Browsing and Facetime are also huge uses for the device.
So in the iPod touch we have a mini iPad–ironically, the dig at the iPad was that it was nothing more than a large iPod touch.
So if cloners are rushing to copy the iPad, why not its smaller incarnation?
The iPod touch increased sales 48% year-over-year. The continuing mix shift toward iPod touch resulted in an overall iPod ASP increase of 12% to $164 (up from $143) generating total iPod revenue growth of 4%.
Units declined 7.9%, inline with my expectations of -8%. I had forecast 9.40 and the actuals was 9.406 million. I note that most amateur analysts over-estimated iPods with my guess being the second lowest. It’s important to consider just how much the iPhone (and iPad) cannibalize the non-iOS iPods.
I am estimating gross margin holding steady at 28%.
Looking forward I am forecasting ASP of 170 and unit growth of -8%.
I’ll also mention here the Music business. Revenues grew at an accelerating 26.7%. This growth is a significant rebound from the 15% to 22% growth of 2009 though lower than the 30%+ range of 2007 and 2008.
Well, not exactly.
During the WWDC keynote Steve Jobs announced that “we will ship 10’s of millions of FaceTime devices in 2010″. Since only iPhone 4 currently runs FaceTime(*) then it stands to reason that there will be “10’s of millions” of iPhone 4 devices sold. And since the year is half over, it means we can divide “10’s of millions” over two quarters. That puts sales in the 10+ million range per quarter.
My current forecast shows 11 million in Q3 and 13 million in Q4 corresponding to 50% y/y growth.
Steve Jobs seems to be indicating this is well within reason.
(*) one exception to this assumption is that he’s including a future iPod touch running FaceTime. This may very well be the case when the iPod line-up will be released probably in October.
Tim Cook made the claim yesterday that about 75 million iPhone OS devices have been sold. The total iPhones we know are about 42 million. That leaves at least 33 million iPod touch units or 44%.
iPod touch grew 55% y/y in CQ4.
My estimate had been 40% iPod share of the platform, so this is very encouraging. It seems that the proportion of iPod is growing and with the iPad, it’s possible that we’ll see less than 50% of the ecosystem being iPhones.
Apple’s Q4 2009 conference call revealed that iPod touch sales were up 100% year over year. For the full fiscal year, iPhone grew 78%.