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Will Nokia build Windows phones?

Sep 24, ’10 1:44 PM

Will Nokia build Windows phones? | VentureBeat.

The chances are extremely small. There are three scenarios where this would make sense:

  1. If there was a specific market that required it. It would also need to be a large opportunity since developing a new platform and diluting existing platforms need significant upside. The only such market is the US, but there are better options available, namely Android that have better potential and Android is treated as a toxin by Nokia (see metaphor).
  2. Specific users. Windows Mobile used to be justified for business users, but Windows Phone is not targeting business users.
  3. The last option would be “strategic” i.e. Microsoft paying Nokia for using the OS (directly or indirectly through marketing co-spend or other symbolisms). I don’t think Nokia is desperate enough yet.

Although it’s never prudent to say never, I just don’t see any logic for Nokia to add to its bill of materials for phones while facing price pressure.

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Android vs. Windows Phone: Extending the urination metaphor

Sep 22, ’10 7:10 AM

CE-Oh no he didn’t!: Anssi Vanjoki says using Android is like peeing in your pants for warmth — Engadget.

A quick follow-up on Anssi Vanjoki’s observation on Android. When he suggested that Android would be just a short-term solution for phone providers the metaphor he used was that it was equivalent to peeing in your pants for warmth in winter.

I wanted to point out that strategically, using Windows Phone is the same thing, except that vendors have to pay for the urine.

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BusinessWeek: Nokia failed because it’s in Finland

Sep 16, ’10 7:26 AM

How Nokia Fell from Grace – BusinessWeek.

The author asserts that company success and failure are determined by the location of its headquarters. He also adds a bit of stupid manager theory to flesh out his thesis for Nokia’s failure.

I’ve already debunked the stupid manager theory here. So let’s look at what’s left.

The bad geography thesis is a far less common theory than the stupid manager theory but maybe it’s worth analyzing.

Here are the basic questions anyone can ask:

  1. When did Finland become a bad location, exactly? It was clearly a good location for Nokia when it was winning and growing. It seems to have become a bad location for Nokia around the same time its business began to slow down. That puts Finland at a geographic disadvantage around 2005 or so. As far as anyone can tell nothing changed with the population or intellectual capital of the country around then (if anything all the surveys seem to show it’s gotten better). So whereas Nokia was successful in Finland and unsuccessful in Finland and Finland did not change, Finland cannot be causal to the failure.
  2. If Finland had something to do with it, did companies in Finland succeed at the same time as Nokia and fail at the same time? I don’t have any evidence to confirm or deny this but I will say that the iPhone’s most popular application is written in Finland (Angry Birds by Rovio). So there are still creative and clever people around.
  3. If location in “hub” locations like Detroit for automobiles or New York for finance, ensures success… oh, never mind.
  4. Since Sony was successful in Japan in the 70′s and 80′s then should they also have moved in the last decade when their business turned? Is Japan also an isolated place for innovation?
  5. What about Microsoft? Seattle was the technology boonies when Microsoft moved there.
  6. Finally, when Hewlett and Packard started in the agricultural plains south of San Francisco, I’m sure the residents of electronics hubs of New Jersey and upstate New York pointed and laughed.

The hypothesis that location matters in success or failure of business models is so easy to disprove that it’s hardly sporting.

Comments (12)

What happens to the fightback now?

Sep 13, ’10 7:27 AM

On July 2nd,  Anssi Vanjoki wrote that “The fightback starts now.”

via asymco | Nokia says the fightback starts now. Oh Really?.

Anssi Vanjoki has just resigned from Nokia.

This is potentially a positive development for Nokia as the “fightback” as Vanjoki defined it was certain to fail. His departure might allow a new team to accelerate the response to the disruption using an asymmetric approach. The odds are massively stacked against Nokia but the more turnover is seen at high levels of the organization the better their chances.

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Elop utters the D word

Sep 11, ’10 1:02 PM

He said that the technology world was facing a “moment of fundamental disruption” thanks to the advent of the smartphone, social media such as Facebook, and “cloud computing” which uses the internet to increase the capabilities of home computers.

Via: BBC

It’s encouraging when an incumbent realizes when they are being disrupted. The textbook says however that it usually happens too late to reverse the damage done.

With a new CEO, Nokia may cut one year off from their response cycle but it’s not a certainty that it will happen.

Asymco assessing Nokia’s response cycle

Comments (19)