Horace Dediu

I’m super excited to announce the Apple Investor Event 2023. This will be the third Apple Investor Event I’ve hosted but it’s been a long time since the last one. The event will take place November 9th, 2023 in Downtown Boston Area (precise location will be announced soon.) The program is a series of talks Continue reading

Apple has so far returned $761.5 billion to shareholders. 143.3 billion in accumulated dividends and $618.2 billion in share buybacks. These are the gray areas in the graph above. The question that often comes up is: isn’t this capital return program a misallocation? In particular isn’t buying back shares and retiring them a waste of Continue reading

Before the iPhone launched in late 2007, Apple was trading consistently at a P/E ratio above 30. Here is a table for the P/E ratio on each Friday’s closing price from May to August, 2007. The iPhone launched on June 29, 2007. Date P/E Ratio 5/23/07 31.5 5/30/07 31.6 6/6/07 34.1 6/13/07 33.7 6/20/07 34.6 Continue reading

iPhone 15 has just been released and, as usual, all the products in the iPhone line-up have received new prices. The following graph shows the current product line-up (US prices before tax) and the historic price points for all the previous versions of iPhones since inception. It was amusing before the launch to see reports Continue reading

After the Apple iPhone 15 launch event of September 12, 2023 I was a guest on the Claman Countdown show on FOX Business News (FBN) and here is the video. https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6337041605112 In advance of the event I was asked for a few thoughts that might be topics I would like to discuss. My answer was: Continue reading

As I remember it, at least 10 years ago, I began to hear anecdotes from developers who built apps for both iOS and Android about their economics. The story is that they tended to have twice as many users using Android but that iPhone App Store revenues were roughly twice those of Google Play Store. Continue reading

The App Store ecosystem crossed $1 Trillion in 2022. To be precise, in a report published in May 2023 by the Analysis Group the ecosystem is estimated to have exceeded $1.1 trillion. This ecosystem is defined as the total transactional value of the sale or distribution of digital and physical goods and services through apps. Continue reading

Software is eating the world. But are users consuming software? Every day, the software industry wastes millions of dollars developing flawed software that’s abandoned by users. Yet the industry’s focus continues to be on the supply side: client or server, full-stack or specialized, out-source or in-house. The Jobs to be Done method presents a fresh Continue reading

As a rule, I don’t like to make a forecast for Apple’s performance during quarters where there is no guidance. There is a good reason why there is no guidance. The management does not feel confident that there is enough information to make a reasonable prediction. Keep in mind that the management has very detailed, Continue reading

I wrote the initial guide almost exactly six years ago. Also known as “The 10 Commandments of Automotive” it’s time to re-visit it to see how and if anything has changed. The rules listed are empirical observations. The patterns show how things are and have been and hint at what can and cannot change. Capacity Continue reading