Revisiting the App Forecast

From a forecast I made on March 21st: 300k Apps Approved by August:

My initial estimate in February for the 200k milestone was by May 1st. I was clearly off by nearly 40 days. If the add rate is maintained at 20k/mo 300k will come around in August although I’m not as confident in this forecast. The rate of app addition seems to be accelerating.

As of today the Approved app counts are as follows:

AppShopper: 297,165 296,662 296,157

The monthly rate of addition is shown in the following graph:

The 20k/month has been steady during the last 7 months so I think the last 4k apps will be added in the next week, making the 300k roll-over in August, as forecast. The approval rate did not accelerate however but stayed pretty steady. There was a similar plateau in the middle of last year around 10k apps/month.

Life's (Not So) Good

Follow-up to LG dreams of smartphones.

LG Doesn’t See Return To Operating Profit Until Early Next Year

By Roger Cheng and Jung-Ah Lee  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

SEOUL (Dow Jones)–LG Electronics (066570.SE), which readily concedes it is late to the smartphone game, said it plans to launch 10 more smartphones and sell 5 million devices by the end of the year as it scrambles to catch up with the rest of the industry.

But the aggressive move, which includes increasing the research and development budget by a third and ramping up its spending on marketing, means the company’s once-flagship mobile devices unit won’t likely return to an operating profit until early next year, said Chang Ma, vice president of marketing for the division.

“We have to just bear it,” Ma told Dow Jones Newswires on Wednesday, adding that he hopes to see a turnaround after the fourth quarter.

It takes R&D to make an Android phone?

(Thanks to MfH for link.)

Android and the philosopher's pencil

Does it not strike everyone as odd that a company whose business is in the cloud also needs to peddle systems software…even devices?

It’s like a philosopher at a conference trying to convince the audience of his idea requiring that they use a certain type of pencil to take notes. And only he can give you that pencil.

This should lead to serious questions: Firstly, maybe you don’t need to take notes, secondly perhaps you don’t use a pencil and thirdly why his pencil?

Analogously: Firstly, Google services don’t need specific devices to be used because they’re designed around web standards. Secondly, they don’t need specific client software or APIs either and, thirdly, they certainly should not need specific systems software. Like the philosopher, Google does not charge for their pencil, but that’s beside the point.

You can only conclude that either the philosopher’s is a scoundrel or his idea is not that good.

So which is it?