IDC raised its 2010 smartphone sales growth forecast to 55 percent from 44 percent earlier. Citing booming smartphone demand it also lifted its forecast for overall cellphone market growth to 14.1 percent from 12.6 percent.
Keep in mind the 55% growth figure when reviewing analyst forecasts for iPhone growth. If their forecast is less than that then it implies market share loss. When I suggested 50% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for iPhone going forward 3 years, there was a lot of skepticism but this market is growing faster than most people expected.
I still believe that Apple can grow the iPhone at least as fast as the market.
Here are the quarterly y/y growth rates for iPhone units since sales began:
159% 516% 88% 90% 644% 7% 100% 131% 61%
On a yearly basis:
2007: 3.7 million
2010 first half: 17.15
2010 (my estimate): 44.4