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Updated estimates for Apple's fourth quarter earnings

We expect revenue to be about $18 billion compared to $12.2 billion in the September quarter last year. We expect gross margins to be about 35%…

We are targeting EPS of about $3.44.

via Apple Inc. AAPL Q3 2010 Earnings Call Transcript.

I’ve updated my estimates from the July forecast as follows:

  • iPhone units: 12.2 13 million (65% 77% growth)
  • Macs: 4 million (30% growth)
  • iPads: 3.3 5 million
  • iPods: 9.4 9.7 million (-5% growth)
  • Music growth: 26.7% 25%
  • Peripherals growth: 21% 15%
  • Software growth: 8%
  • Total sales: $19.0 $20.5 billion (56% 69%y/y growth)
  • GM: 42.3% 40.4%
  • EPS: $4.78 $5.00 (73% 81% y/y growth)

The main news items that affected the changes in estimates were:

  1. iPhone continues to be supply constrained.
  2. iPad supply nearly matching demand though not yet rolled out in all markets
  3. new iPods look compelling though offset by back to school promos

Follow other estimates at Deagol’s site:
Deagol’s AAPL Model: Fiscal 4Q 2010 Final Estimates