asymco

And what if you do the survey on Phandroid.com? By your logic, Android is really tanking and the data is fundamentally weighted wrong.

So again, show us your real numbers. Or are you making up your position?

And for some reason, you simply saying all other sources but yours are lies and wrong is correct? Comparing Google’s unknown “activation” numbers to Apple’s sold numbers makes a bit of sense but not if you understand what “activations” mean.

Instead, you simply say that all sources are wrong and Charbax is right.

Show us your data. Show us your methodology. Show us how this data is wrong. Do not argue simply because it goes against your religious held beliefs, show us with data. Show us that you are not some corrupt bogus source of real raw data.

All you have to do is look at your past history of posts to see that the level of accuracy is exceedingly low. Go back in time 12 months. 18 months. Few of your hopes and dreams have materialized.

Apple? Still not using ARM on MacBooks.

Apple stock? Still not collapsed like you predicted.
As everyone can see that Android is obviously just about to destroy the iphone OS, apple’s profits and revenues will soon shrink rapidly, which will lead to rapid devaluation of the stock.

Android tablet market share? Still not HUGE like you predicted it would be by this time.

Consumers will not buy $500 ipads when there are $200 Android alternatives.

How did those predictions turn out?

You project your hopes and desires when looking at data and reject all data that does not conform to your world view.

Yup you are correct. I am the number 1 Archos fan in the world, and Archos is the inventor of every popular Apple product. ipod was invented by Archos and ipod touch, iphone and ipad were invented by Archos years before Apple released those. The only difference between Archos and Apple is the amount of cash. If Archos had more cash, you’d all be french fanboys now.

Archos is very healthy for a 100-employee company, and all real geeks want to buy Archos and nothing else. Archos is one of the only European consumer electronics company, over here there simply is less cash involved.

Most of what Apple sells today is based on stolen ideas which they stole from Archos over the past decade and other consumer electronics companies that have been actually inventing the stuff.

All my previous posts have turned out true. And yes you can go back 10 years, I predicted the tablet, I am in fact the web’s only true believer of the ARM Powered Tablet since about 2003, I’ve had my first ARM powered tablet in 2004. And yes, APPL will collapse as soon as investors see its profit margins and market share starting to be reduced, but hey, you won’t find those facts on asymco, asymco is the headquarters for the APPL share holder keeping overvaluation high propaganda.

Android tablets are taking over, likely more Android tablets will be sold per day than ipad before the end of they year. That’s exactly what I have been saying for months now.

Apple will use ARM in the Macbooks, it’s the only way they can maximize profits on the macbook.

Again, if you want correct numbers, do not get them from bogus “web survey” corrupt “analysts”, but hey, if you are satisfied with those, given the complete lack of scientific merrit of the methodology, go ahead. Stay brainwashed by the APPL overvaluation propaganda for as long as you like. Keep your APPL stock for as long as you want, just don’t blame me for not having warned you once the value of your APPL stocks are halved very quickly.

There is this very basic fact, that a company CANNOT be worth $370 Billion when all it’s making more than 65% of its profits from is one single product, the iphone. And that the whole profit scheme of the smartphone industry is so obviously being turned on its head at the speed of light. People were paying $3000 for an iPhone on a 2-year contract. The biggest scam in the history of mankind. As fast as huge smartphone profit margins appeared out of nowhere, they will dissapear from society even faster.

The profit margins are everything and THE ONLY REASON Apple is worth anything. Without the ipod and iphone, Apple would have either been bankrupt or worth less than half of the Dell stock today. ($14 Billion max vs $370 Billion now because of ipod and iphone).

Apple becomes absolutely worthless once they can’t make huge mountains of profits from the iphone. They are making $450 profit per iphone today, it costs $150 to manufacture and they sell them for $600 to carriers and unlocked.

ARM Macbook costs $150 to manufacture and Apple can also hope to sell it $600. That is why they’d do that. Instead of keeping to manufacture $600 macbooks that they sell at $1000.

Oh man, you want to insist?

Iphone: $150 manufacture, sold $600 = 300% profit margin
Ipad: $200 manufacture, sold $500 = 150% profit margin
Ipod touch: $120 manufacture, sold $200 = 66% profit margin
macbook air: $600 manufacture, sold $1000 = 66% profit margin

The iPhone is the only product maintaining Apple’s huge profit stream. Once that one is gone, there is no miracle. Apple is not going to invent levitating penguins that everyone will want to buy for 10x the cost or anything like that. Apple would need to sell 2x more iPads (without reducing $499 price!) than they currently sell iPhones if they’d want to keep the same amount of company profit. Not going to happen! Not that many people at all in society are ready to pay $1000 for an Apple branded Netbook, which is what the Macbook Air pretty much is about.

My numbers are very relevant. It does not matter if Apple makes more profits than Asus or Acer on each Macbook sold vs each Asus or Acer laptop sold. You cannot value a company at $370 Billion if all they have is a macbook that few millions of rich people buy for over $1000 here and there. If Apple didn’t have ipod and iphone they’d be completely worthless today.

Also you have a basic mathematics failure again. By your own figures an iPhone is $450 profit, while an iPad is $300, so that’s only 1.5x for the same profit, using your simplistic logic.

Profit margin is not “all that counts”, that is an absurd statement.

Again, no, you have made a basic mistake, by your own figures for the same “profit” they would only have to sell 1.5x the units on something that makes $300 profit vs $450. I don’t know what you are calculating here.

“they’d need to sell even more than 2x current iphone numbers to keep making the same overall company profits, that’s quite simply impossible!”

Hmmm, weird, because they just sold 2x current iPhone numbers in fiscal 2011 than they had in all the years up to that point. I guess they achieved the impossible. But again, it’s not really relevant so it doesn’t actually matter that you are completely wrong.

“Iphone: $150 manufacture, sold $600 = 300% profit margin”

Profit margin is based upon sales, not costs. You are confusing “profit margin” with “markup.” This sort of error destroys your credibility.

The “cost” you cite is really only the cost of the components, without assembly, distribution, sales, warranty, support, etc.

Sadly, I can’t find a single post of yours that came out true. Two months ago, you predicted AAPL would fall 70% because of the MMI/GOOG deal. It failed. I posted 2 other examples that turned out to patently false. Your insight into business and technology is clouded by a religious fervor that prevents you from seeing any rational data outside your own limited worldview.

And any stock will collapse as soon as it fails to deliver. Someday, Google will collapse. Oracle will collapse. Apple will collapse. Likewise, someday the Sun will go Nova.

Your issue is you specify time quantities like “soon” and “maybe tomorrow”. After 18 months, “soon” has never happened. “Maybe tomorrow” never happened. You foreshadowed with 100% certainty that Android would over take iOS in the tablet space by the end of the year. Turns out to be equally laughable. Your rose colored Googles color your ability to prognosticate the future to an extreme degree. Even worse, you are incapable of looking back at the past to learn from your failures.

Android in the tablet market is an unmitigated failure with the road littered by products standing as graves stones to Google’s hubris. Comparing the Android shipping units to Apple’s sold units is a fools game (For example, Verizon was dumping their 7″ and 10″ Samsung tablets for $50 and $100 respectively. No contract. No strings. Just get these things off of our shelves). Likewise, the two most probable popular Androidish tablets, the Nook and the Fire, are not even Android as they do not pass the Google compatibility tests, have their own non-Google services included and are not supported by Google. The Nook and the Fire will effectively devastate any other 3rd party option of a tablet based off of Android source.

As far as data-sources go. You outright lie to support your view. For example, you link to a >1 year old iPhone sales chart on Wikipedia to support Android today is far out performing the iPhone. Talk about corrupt and biased.

I read enough of your humor over the past 2-3 years (Disqus makes it fast and easy) to understand that you are incapable to make a rational thought about Apple and way overestimate Google’s position on all of their products.

Definition
Imminent: 1. about to happen:

That means really soon. Not 5 years from now. Not even 2 years from now. When discussing stocks, Imminent would mean within 1 or 2 quarters. You have been predicting Apple imminent stock collapse for many years. You have been 100% wrong on those forecasts.

I still stand by Android tablets are going to sell more than iPad during at least one day before the end of the year

Let’s change the goal posts. What you just wrote is not what you have written in the past. From that view, Apple is crushing Android because they have peaked at over 1.5 million activations/day. From your warped logic, Apple is selling nearly 3X the number of phones than all of the Android handsets combined. Thanks for proving that Apple is selling more than Android in the handset markets

The reality is, however, there is no slated Android tablet (not Androidish like the Nook and Fire) that is slated to go on sale in the next 3 months that will compete with the iPad.

The “Nexus Tablet”? Where do you come up with your nomenclature? Do you make it up out of thin air?

Wow, you make it easy.

Imminent or later? Take your pick. I gave you a dictionary definition of “imminent”. Are you redefining the English language? All stocks will tank “later”. No company is forever. What is it? Imminent as in 2-3 months or later as in sometime from 2-10 years from now? Take a stand. Imminent or later?

Daily sales is what counts? Then why don’t you base your failed logic on Apple’s peak daily sales? Google talks about trended average daily activations over a 3 month period. Again, you have to understand how the script counts that number for it to make sense.

So what are the 12 new grave stones about to be planted? Having lots of SKUs does not mean the platform is selling. The Tegra 2 was a dog of a processor and none of the slated tablets coming on line in the next 6 months have a GPU with even close in performance to the 6 month old iPad 2.

“Nexus Tablet” is just a term you made up to try and sound smart. It is as meaningless as most of your posts.

“Nexus is the point from which you can see the Android domination really happen, that is when the software and hardware integration reaches perfection”

Really? Perfection. As is smooth and fluid operation. They don’t have that yet on ICS yet alone Froyo. Perfection? Where the interface is still so bad, Google has to continuously try and reinvent it every time?

“But you can also go ahead and only read on asymco or whichever other bogus blogs that keep saying that Android tablets aren’t selling”

Not based on “bogus blogs” (like everything you write) but actually data. From web share and Google Market place data to talking with Verizon reps. Seriously. Do you think Verizon would be dumping $500 and $600 tablets for $50 and $100 respectively
(no contract) if they were selling? The sad part is, they were selling more $600 iPads than $100 Galaxy Tabs. There is no indication of any web usage, Android Market data or anywhere that any of these tablets are being used if they are being sold. Given the fire sales offered by Verizon, I suspect they are not selling well at all.

Android on tablets is an unmitigated disaster only exceeded by Google TV. What amazes me is all these companies willing to loose 100′s of millions for Google.

“Nobody is dumping Android tablets at $50 with no contract. You go dream if you want. Or go ahead and go buy some and sell them for 5x more on ebay.

Verizon was this weekend. “Clearing inventory” was the term he used. The single core 540 @380 MHz not only underperforms the 543MP2 @200MHz but also burns substantially more power and runs substantially hotter. Nice try. Bone up on your PowerVR tech and come back.

So many errors. So little time.

End of Line.

Except the A5 uses the 543MP2 and it is more than 2X faster at the same clock than the single core 540. Do you lie as a basis to support your view of reality or what?

As I said, go bone up on your PowerVR stats and come back.

So everyone lies and cheats and is corrupt except Charbax? Every web site in the world is bogus except yours that shows the shining light of truth? Is that really your world view?

You make it so easy. I am starting to think you are paid by Apple to make Android users look sad.

From Apple’s site:
“Two powerful cores in one A5 chip mean iPad can do twice the work at once. Multitasking is smooth, apps load quickly, and anything you touch responds instantly. And with up to nine times the graphics performance of the first-generation iPad, everything on iPad 2 is even more fluid and realistic, from gameplay to scrolling through your photo library.”

The 9X really shines through in fill rates and OpenCL work. The 543MP is a monster. As I have noted: You really do need to bone up on your working knowledge of the PowerVR series before embarrassing yourself further.

The OMAP4460 uses the SGX540, released in 2007, in a single core configuration. A single 540 is less than half the speed in many operations as a single core SGX543 (released in 2010 BTW). Apple uses the SGX543MP2 in a dual core configuration.

This is funny:
“If someone tomorrow went to invest $1 Billion in Archos tablet production, they’d be selling more tablets than Apple. Still with just 100 employees, that’s how much more advanced the Android ecosystem is compared to your proprietary Apple.

Except Archos tends to get panned for low quality and poor battery life. The G9 has had some decent reviews but has pretty poor battery life (7 hours? really?), lacks availability and is a heavy/thick contender in its size class. There is a reason no one is paying up $1 billion to invest in Archos production line. Smart consumers will pick the stronger eco-system: iOS.

So the programming tech specs from Imagination Technologies is an Apple Fanboy site as well? Is the entire world a conspiracy? Now, even the company that designs the PowerVR graphics system is out to get Android.

On graphics, yes, doubling the the cores scale almost linearly unto 4 cores or so. Part of the magic of the 543MPn design.

300% margin? Do you lie and makeup numbers at a continuous rate?

I’ve been to China many times, I’ve talked with people that work in the factories in Shenzhen, I’ve talked with tons of Android manufacturers, the numbers are obvious, Android is dominating all over the world. Be it in rich countries and much more so in developing countries. And then I use basic common sense, all the carriers prefer to sell Android simply because Android provides cheaper prices and more diversity, a carrier needs exclusive designs to differentiate and they prefer paying less and keeping more money to themselves instead of giving all that money to Apple. But hey, you just go ahead and believe whatever you want. Go ahead, read the bogus comscore, nielsen, gartner, all a bunch of bogus analysts who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about and who sell you bogus reports (and who are most often paid by Microsoft/Apple/etc to give you those bogus numbers) based on bogus “web stats” that have absolutely NOTHING to do with actual worldwide sales and market share.

Android’s lead is much wider and faster and thus Apple’s market share is shrinking, that is all that I am trying to let you know.

Oh that is simply so sad that you Apple fanboys weant to believe Apple can still take market share away from Microsoft, Palm, Symbian and RIM. So sad for you. 95% of the market share from those has been taken by Android already. There is only Android and iPhone on the market. Wake up. Go to your local Best Buy, you will see Android phones being sold at $59 on MetroPCS, no contracts required, those are on pre-paid. Those are being sold in huge numbers in all Walgreens, CVS Pharmacy, Costco, WalMart etc.

Yup these articles based on bogus comscore numbers are a waste of everyone’s time. That’s what I am trying to say here.

The methodology is described here: http://www.comscore.com/About_comScore/Methodology

Here, some more about how comscore is famous for being completely bogus http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-comscores-bogus-logic-for-its-10000-blackmail-fee-we-dont-make-that-much-money-2010-1

This is very much a trailing indicator. Install base is the last thing to change but it’s also arguably the most important. The leading indicators are things like intent to buy surveys, 3G rollout rates and in the case of platforms, customer satisfaction surveys. Customer satisfaction lets you guess how many people will likely switch platforms after they reach saturation.

Perhaps things won’t change but according to a recent estimate from Ericsson, by 2016 there will be about 5.2 billion smartphones and tablets in use by 2016 (out of over 8 billion mobile subs total).
The mobile computing market is likely to diverge quite a bit from the fixed computing market and the sheer numbers involved might lead to some unexpected turns in economics.

Show us your data? You keep making accusations but nothing (not even a sound argument) to back it up.

Based on history, your data and predictions have been way way off base. How is this any different?

Haha, are you going to crow here whenever there’s a couple percent drop and remain curiously silent on upward movement? Enjoy.